Climate change has made deadly floods in Europe worse and more likely

Record rainfall that led to floods that killed 24 people in Europe in early September was twice as likely to be caused by human-made climate change, a study has found.

The flooding occurred in Central Europe after Storm Boris lashed the region between September 12 and 16, inundating Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Austria, the Czech Republic and Germany, with the heaviest rainfall ever recorded in some areas and affecting nearly two million people. people. .

“Our study found the signatures of climate change in the bursts of rainfall that flooded central Europe,” said Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial College London and one of the contributors to the World Weather Attribution report. “Once again, these floods highlight the devastating results of fossil fuel-driven warming.”

Global warming leads to more intense precipitation because a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture than a cooler one, according to the WWA. Similar storms will become 50% more frequent in central Europe and 5% more rain will fall if warming reaches 2C, scientists said.

The researchers used meteorological data and climate models to show the effects of climate change on weather patterns, and compared the probability and intensity of precipitation with that of the climate before the current warming trend. The Earth’s climate is about 1.3 C warmer than in pre-industrial times, and Europe is warming faster than other parts of the world.

“We need to prepare for even heavier rainfall than predicted in these models,” WWA co-leader Friederike Otto said at a news conference on Tuesday before the report was released.

Despite record levels of rainfall, the death toll in Central Europe was lower than in previous, less widespread floods. That’s because early forecasting allowed authorities to prepare by creating flood defense walls, emptying reservoirs and issuing warnings. In 2002, floods killed 232 people in a similar region. However, this time the impacts were still significant, with widespread damage to homes and infrastructure.

“These floods indicate how costly climate change is becoming. Even with days of preparation, the floods still devastated cities, destroyed thousands of homes and saw the European Union commit €10 billion in aid,” said Maja Vahlberg, technical advisor at the Red Cross and Red Crescent Climate Centre.

Photo: A river gauge shows a level of just under six meters of the rising Oder River in Ratzdorf, Germany on September 24, 2024; photo credit: Sean Gallup/Getty Images

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