New York State Usually Votes Democrat But These Counties Are Bright Red

Despite its status as a Democratic stronghold, there are several parts of the New York that have consistently broken with the prevailing political ideology in recent elections. According to voting records, there are 29 counties in New York where an average of at least 50% of voters have supported the Republican candidate across the last four presidential elections. In one of these counties, an average of 65.8% of voters cast ballots for the Republican candidate over the same four general elections.

These are the most Republican counties in New York. All historical, county-level, voting statistics are from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab’s County Presidential Election Returns 2000-2020 database, as compiled in the Harvard Dataverse, V13.

Why It Matters

Because of the electoral college system, the outcome of presidential elections often comes down to voters in just a handful of closely contested states. In contrast to these battleground states, most of the country has reliably voted either Democratic or Republican in recent presidential elections. These states include New York, which, barring any unforeseen shake ups in the race, is all but guaranteed to go to Harris in 2024. Still, New York is not the partisan monolith it is often perceived to be.

29. Niagara County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 44.8% Democratic; 50.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 43.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 53.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 38.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 56.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 47.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 49.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 212,230

28. Washington County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 43.7% Democratic; 51.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 40.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 56.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 37.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 55.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 47.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 42.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 49.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 61,310

27. Oswego County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 43.3% Democratic; 51.3% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 38.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 58.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 35.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 57.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 49.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 39.5% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 50.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 47.9% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 118,037

26. Chemung County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 43.8% Democratic; 51.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 41.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 55.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 38.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 55.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 46.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.1% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 48.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 50.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 83,584

25. Putnam County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 43.2% Democratic; 52.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 45.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 52.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 39.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 55.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 41.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 47.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 45.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 97,942

24. Richmond County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 44.5% Democratic; 52.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 41.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 56.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 41.0% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 56.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 49.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 43.4% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 47.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 51.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 492,925

23. Yates County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 42.0% Democratic; 52.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 39.1% Democrat (Joe Biden); 57.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 36.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 56.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 45.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 47.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 51.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 24,713

22. Chautauqua County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 41.6% Democratic; 52.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 38.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 58.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 35.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 58.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 42.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 49.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 127,440

21. Oneida County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 42.2% Democratic; 53.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 40.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 56.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 37.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 56.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 45.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 46.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 52.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 231,055

20. Jefferson County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 41.7% Democratic; 53.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 39.2% Democrat (Joe Biden); 58.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 36.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 56.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 45.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.0% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 46.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 52.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 117,445

19. Schuyler County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 40.7% Democratic; 53.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 39.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 57.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 35.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 57.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 42.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 45.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 52.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 17,855

18. Chenango County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 40.9% Democratic; 54.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 37.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 60.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 33.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 59.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 44.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 46.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 48.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 49.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 47,096

17. Livingston County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 40.4% Democratic; 54.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 39.4% Democrat (Joe Biden); 57.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 35.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 57.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 41.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 47.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 45.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 61,980

16. Montgomery County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 40.4% Democratic; 54.4% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 37.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 60.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 34.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 59.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 44.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 44.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 45.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 49,624

15. Greene County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 39.9% Democratic; 54.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 40.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 56.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 33.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 59.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 41.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 47.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 44.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 54.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 48,067

14. Wayne County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 39.7% Democratic; 54.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 38.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 58.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 33.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 58.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 41.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 45.9% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 44.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 54.2% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 91,324

13. Delaware County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 40.4% Democratic; 54.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 39.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 58.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 33.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 60.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 42.3% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 46.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 51.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 44,637

12. Tioga County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 38.9% Democratic; 56.1% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 38.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 58.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 33.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 59.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 39.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 51.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 44.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 54.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 48,344

11. Herkimer County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 37.9% Democratic; 57.7% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 33.6% Democrat (Joe Biden); 63.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 30.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 63.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 43.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 44.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 60,293

10. Cattaraugus County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 37.1% Democratic; 57.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 33.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 63.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 30.5% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 63.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 40.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 49.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 43.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 54.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 77,000

9. Schoharie County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 36.1% Democratic; 58.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 33.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 62.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 30.2% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 62.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 38.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 49.2% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 41.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 56.1% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 29,970

8. Fulton County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 37.3% Democratic; 58.0% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 32.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 63.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 30.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 63.5% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 42.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 49.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 44.5% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.7% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 53,280

7. Lewis County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 35.8% Democratic; 59.5% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 29.3% Democrat (Joe Biden); 68.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 27.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 65.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 43.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 48.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 44.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 53.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 26,690

6. Steuben County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 35.8% Democratic; 59.6% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 33.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 63.4% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 29.8% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 63.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 39.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 52.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 40.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 57.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 93,584

5. Genesee County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 34.5% Democratic; 59.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 32.7% Democrat (Joe Biden); 64.1% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 28.9% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 64.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 36.7% Democrat (Barack Obama); 51.8% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 40.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 58.5% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 58,204

4. Orleans County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 33.6% Democratic; 61.2% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 30.5% Democrat (Joe Biden); 66.2% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 27.3% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 66.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 37.4% Democrat (Barack Obama); 51.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 39.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 58.6% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 40,148

3. Hamilton County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 33.5% Democratic; 61.9% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 33.8% Democrat (Joe Biden); 63.8% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 29.4% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 64.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 35.0% Democrat (Barack Obama); 56.7% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 35.9% Democrat (Barack Obama); 62.8% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 5,090

2. Allegany County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 31.8% Democratic; 62.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 28.9% Democrat (Joe Biden); 67.6% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 26.1% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 67.0% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 34.6% Democrat (Barack Obama); 55.3% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 38.2% Democrat (Barack Obama); 60.0% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 47,222

1. Wyoming County

• Average popular vote split in last 4 presidential elections: 29.3% Democratic; 65.8% Republican
• Popular vote split in 2020 election: 26.0% Democrat (Joe Biden); 71.3% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2016 election: 22.6% Democrat (Hillary Clinton); 71.9% Republican (Donald Trump)
• Popular vote split in 2012 election: 32.8% Democrat (Barack Obama); 56.6% Republican (Mitt Romney)
• Popular vote split in 2008 election: 36.1% Democrat (Barack Obama); 62.3% Republican (John McCain)
• County population: 40,338

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