Will Iran directly intervene in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict?

Israel has led the deadliest bombardment of Lebanon since a devastating five-week conflict with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah in 2006.

The September 23-24 attacks, which killed hundreds of people, mark the start of a new war between Israel and its longtime enemy Hezbollah, experts say.

The sides have traded constant cross-border attacks since Israel launched its war on the Gaza Strip in October. Hezbollah said it fired rockets at Israel in solidarity with the Palestinians.

But Israel’s deadly airstrikes, which came shortly after a series of explosive device attacks in Lebanon that were widely blamed on Israel, point to the outbreak of a new conflict.

“Both sides can escalate further, but we are already at a level of violence that matches the Second Lebanon War” in 2006, said Michael Horowitz, chief information officer at Bahrain-based consultancy Le Beck International.

The distinction between ongoing conflict and full-scale war “is becoming so narrow as to be almost irrelevant,” Horowitz added.

Iran-backed Hezbollah has faced a series of setbacks in recent months as Israel has assassinated key members of its leadership and command structure. Last week’s suspected Israeli attack targeting pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah fighters also compromised the group’s communications.

Although it has suffered significant losses, experts say the Lebanese militant group should not be written off.

Horowitz warned that taking Hezbollah “out of the fight is not a realistic goal” given its military arsenal as well as the labor forcewhich number in the tens of thousands.

Hezbollah responded to Israel’s aerial bombardment by firing rockets into northern Israel. But the group has yet to use its more sophisticated weapons, such as drones and medium- and long-range missiles that can strike deep into Israeli territory.

Hezbollah insists it will continue to strike Israel unless a ceasefire agreement is reached to end the war in Gaza. However, Israel says its goal is to ensure security along its northern border with Lebanon so displaced Israelis can return home.

“The Israelis believe that if they apply enough pressure on Hezbollah, the group will eventually agree to decouple the front in Lebanon from the front in Gaza — or face so many losses that its ability to continue the war wears out which he carried against Israel for 11 months. will be significantly reduced,” Horowitz said.

But experts say Israel is adopting a dangerous strategy by stepping up attacks against Hezbollah.

“The assessment may be that Israel can neutralize a significant portion of Hezbollah’s arsenal before the group can use it to launch massive attacks against central Israel, and that Iran and Hezbollah may also be deterred from escalating,” Horowitz said . “It’s a very risky bet.”

Iran, Hezbollah’s key backer, has been reluctant to get directly involved in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

Speaking on RFE/RL’s Radio Farda, London-based political commentator Jalali Hashemi said Hezbollah’s relatively muted response to the September 23-24 attacks and Iran’s refusal to engage in a direct confrontation with Israel had encouraged the prime minister Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu to carry out “more devastating attacks”.

Iran and Israel have come to the brink of war several times, including after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran in July. Tehran blamed Israel and vowed to retaliate, although there was no direct military response from Iran.

Iranian President Masud Pezeshkian ADVISED that Israel’s air campaign in Lebanon “may turn into a regional war”.

Ali Mohtadi, a UK-based regional expert, said that during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, Tehran refrained from directly engaging in hostilities. In return, Iran provided its ally with logistical support and weapons.

“It is possible that this time, although Iran is in a different place than in 2006, it will continue to provide the same level of support to Lebanon (Hezbollah),” Mohtadi told Radio Farda.

Via RFE/RL

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