Sam Altman: AI Superintelligence ‘Thousands of Days’ Away

In a blog post on his personal website, Altman discussed what he calls the Age of Intelligence and said “We may have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I’m confident we’ll get there.”

Of course, the “thousands” of days are quite open. 2,000 days is 5.5 years, while 5,000 days is just under 14, so while Altman is incredibly optimistic about the future of AI, he’s not predicting change overnight.

While the goal of generative AI is to match the intellectual capabilities of humans, superintelligent AI appears to go even further, possibly far exceeding the human brain’s ability to evaluate problems and make decisions. It’s a technology that may spark some of the biggest fears about AI given its potential.

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Altman, in his post, said society is currently at the beginning of what he calls the “Age of Intelligence,” which he believes may be among the most transformative in human history.

“I think the future will be so bright that no one can do it justice by trying to write about it now; a defining characteristic of the Age of Intelligence will be massive prosperity,” he wrote. “Although it will happen gradually, astonishing triumphs—fixing the climate, establishing a space colony, and discovering the whole of physics—will eventually become commonplace. With almost unlimited intelligence and abundant energy—the ability to generate great ideas and the ability to make them happen—we can do quite a lot.”

While he was optimistic about the future of artificial intelligence, Altman noted the risk of downsides, including the impact on the labor market, but said that “most jobs will change more slowly than most people think” and that many of the jobs that what we do today will look like a waste of time in the future.

“Nobody looks back on the past wishing they were a lighter,” he wrote.

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