close
close
migores1

ECB’s October rate decision seen wide open – Reuters

Citing seven sources, Reuters reported on Thursday that “the European Central Bank’s (ECB) October rate decision is seen as wide open.”

Supplementary food

ECB fights for October interest rate cut after weak data.

The push for an interest rate cut in October is likely to face resistance from ECB hawks advocating for a pause.

Some sources have proposed a compromise where rates are kept on hold in October, but there is a strong hint of a possible cut in December if the data does not improve. But this would contradict the ECB’s “meet-by-meet” approach.

Traders increased their bets on an October interest rate cut after recent weak eurozone business surveys and German sentiment data. Money markets now see an 80% chance that the ECB will cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%, compared with a 50% chance earlier this week.

Markets are pricing in about 50 bps of rate cuts in total by the end of the year.

Market reaction

EUR/USD pared gains to trade steady around 1.1135 following this report.

ECB FAQs

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany is the reserve bank for the euro area. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB’s main mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its main tool to achieve this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually lead to a stronger euro and vice versa. The Governing Council of the ECB takes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are taken by the heads of the national banks of the euro area and six permanent members, including the president of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can implement a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis of 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, and during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the inverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation begins to rise. While in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) buys government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds and stops reinvesting the maturing principal in the bonds it already owns . It is usually positive (or bullish) for the euro.

Related Articles

Back to top button