Why China would want to launch an ICBM in the Pacific

• China tested an ICBM this week, launching it into the Pacific Ocean for the first time in more than 40 years.
• This type of testing provides China with useful data on how an ICBM would perform under normal circumstances.
• China’s missile force has seen significant growth in recent years as China strengthens its capabilities.

China’s test of an intercontinental ballistic missile this week, in which the country fired the long-range weapon into the Pacific Ocean, was a very public show of Chinese military power at a time when it is strengthening its nuclear arsenal.

The test – China’s first of its kind in more than 40 years – also gave China a chance to gather invaluable data on what the ICBM’s launch, trajectory and range might look like in a potential real-world scenario , something that has been tested at altitude. in the desert cannot provide.

On Wednesday, the Missile Force of the People’s Liberation Army, the missile branch of the Chinese military, fired an ICBM with a dummy warhead into the Pacific. While it was anything but, China’s Ministry of Defense said the test launch was “routine.” He noted that it was part of the country’s training plan and said other countries had been notified in advance.

Maps shared online indicated that the weapon, which was launched from Hainan, landed in the South Pacific after traveling a distance of about 12,000 km. China’s Ministry of Defense said the ICBM went down where it was expected.

China did not say which missile was tested, but the military shared images online. Chinese observers and experts initially suggested it could have been a DF-41, one of PLARF’s newer ICBMs. The three-stage, solid-fueled missile was tested in the Gobi desert and was publicly unveiled in 2019. Other analysts have since said the weapon was a DF-31 variant.

China has conducted several ICBM tests at inland desert locations as its missile arsenal has grown, but Wednesday’s test was different, giving China something its other tests could not.

Tianran Xu, an analyst for the Open Nuclear Network, told Business Insider that “if you launch to the Pacific, that’s the most realistic scenario because you can see how the missile works under completely realistic conditions.”

He said this type of testing probably isn’t indispensable, but “it has the advantage of being completely realistic.”

China has long tested missiles in the desert, but as Decker Eveleth, a researcher at the Center for Naval Analyses, noted in a series of social media posts, “the problem is that it forces you to use a high trajectory.” , because “the distance from the ICBM test site to the target ranges is about 2000-3000 kilometers.”

“That means if the PLARF wanted to test a depressed trajectory, it would have to find another place to test its ICBMs,” he said, referring to a shorter and longer flight path.

Chinese military analysts have reached similar conclusions. Song Zhongping, a retired PLARF officer and commentator, told the state-run China Daily that “although China’s intercontinental ballistic missiles have good reliability and strong power, we need a certain number of full-range tests to verify readiness their operational”.

The US regularly conducts ICBM training tests by launching Minuteman III ICBMs into the Pacific. These tests are fairly routine, unlike the Chinese test, which was the first such test since the DF-5 test in 1980.

Tianran said China’s domestic missile tests probably gave China enough confidence in its weapons capabilities, but the Pacific test was a rare opportunity to mimic what a real launch would look like, including logistics, transportation, the skills of missile crews. , and launching from atypical sites.

“Launching a missile is complicated, and there are a variety of tasks that if you screw up, that missile will miss the target,” Eveleth said. “By doing it in Hainan and launching from a potentially unknown launch location that the rocket crew might not be familiar with, you can identify potential pitfalls in the process.”

The publicly announced ICBM launch comes as the PLARF expands its nuclear arsenal and develops its missile capabilities.

Last fall, the Defense Department reported that the PLARF had effectively doubled its missile stockpile from 2021 to 2022, including medium-range ballistics capable of targeting US military assets in Japan and medium-range missiles capable of reaching in Guam; its number of ICBMs increased from 300 to 350, while its launchers for those missiles increased from 300 to 500.

The “dramatic expansion,” along with other new developments, “will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and require increased production of nuclear warheads,” the Pentagon said, estimating that China has more than 500 operational nuclear warheads – making it number one. third world arsenal after Russia and USA.

China’s ICBM test in the Pacific also comes as the country flexes its muscles, conducting joint naval exercises with Russia that the Russian leader has characterized as a challenge to the US-led world order by aggressing neighboring nations and testing borders .

China has faced repeated criticism for engaging in unsafe intercepts of US and allied aircraft, violations of its airspace and territorial waters, and aggressive sea clashes in contested waterways, while continuing to exert increasing pressure on Taiwan.

Beijing has also expressed frustration with the US military presence in the region, including the indefinite deployment of a new missile system in the Philippines and a potential future one in Japan, among others.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman recently accused the US, through its moves, of intensifying an “arms race” and exacerbating “regional tensions” over the deployment. China has also recently complained about transits by the US and its allies and partners through the Taiwan Strait.

Despite lingering tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, the Chinese military said its ICBM test was “it is not directed against any country or target.” He did not say whether he plans to repeat this type of test in the future.