Bitcoin Launches ‘Uptober’ Tracking All-Time Gains of 22.9%.

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With the start of October, the crypto market enters ‘Uptober’, a period historically associated with strong Bitcoin performance. Over the past nine years, Bitcoin has averaged 22.9% in gains since October eight, potentially pushing the leading cryptocurrency above $78,000 and into new high territory if the trend continues, according to QCP’s latest Asia Color report Capital.

Bitcoin has consolidated between $60,000 and $70,000 for eight months, prompting speculation of a potential breakout. The market is considering this possibility, especially with the upcoming US election. Spot ETF inflows remain consistently positive, while perpetual funding rates are nearing levels reminiscent of the optimal run in Q1.

Weekly data shows signs of imminent run

Bitcoin has shown notable price action this week, trading around $63,905 as of October 1, 2024, with a high of $64,208 and a low of $62,869. Despite a 2.91% drop in the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency has rallied 3% for the week, breaking through the $64,700 resistance level. This upward trend is attributed to increased institutional demand and significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, totaling approximately $140.7 million.

Overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains bullish, supported by positive on-chain data and a favorable macroeconomic environment. Traders are anticipating potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which has contributed to the upbeat outlook. With daily trading volumes of around $37 billion, Bitcoin’s price action continues to reflect its continued volatility and sensitivity to broader market trends and institutional interest.

Macro, Ethereum and Fed Rate Cuts

Ethereum, while performing well in October, has seen more modest average returns of around 5% over the past eight Octobers. However, the first day of the month saw significant buying of ETH October call options, indicating bullish sentiment.

The Bitfinex Alpha report highlights several bullish factors for Bitcoin as it enters its fourth quarter. Potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are adding to the optimism, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell hinting at another 50 basis point cut this year. Bitcoin’s recent 26.2% rise since the September 6 correction, breaking above the $65,000 mark, further supports the positive outlook.

However, the report also notes warning signs that could threaten Bitcoin’s performance. Buying activity in the spot market flattened, suggesting a temporary balance between buyers and sellers. Additionally, Bitcoin futures saw $35.3 billion in open interest, a level often associated with local market tops and potential “overheating.”

Despite these concerns, Bitfinex analysts believe a 5% to 10% pullback would be enough to cool the market without ending Bitcoin’s recent uptrend. The alpha cryptocurrency’s consolidation between $50,000 and $68,000 reflects the 2020 pre-halving pattern, where an October surge led to significant price increases.

As “Uptober” begins, traders are exploring strategies to capitalize on potential breakouts. A suggested trade idea involves a Bitcoin Call DIGI (75k 25-OCT) with a potential payout of 6.5x based on a spot reference of $64,000.

With historical data suggesting a strong Q4 performance and various bullish indicators, the crypto market is watching closely to see if Bitcoin can maintain its ‘Uptober’ momentum and reach new highs in the coming weeks.

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