OPEC+ is set to keep production policy unchanged at panel meeting by Reuters

By Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar and Maha El Dahan

LONDON/DUBAI (Reuters) – An OPEC+ ministerial group scheduled to meet on Wednesday is unlikely to recommend any policy changes, allowing the group to begin gradually raising output from December, two Reuters sources said.

Ministers from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, or OPEC+, as the group is known, will hold an online joint ministerial monitoring committee (JMMC) at 1200 GMT.

The two sources, who declined to be identified, said Wednesday’s meeting was unlikely to bring any surprises. One of them said he would reaffirm the need for member countries to meet their production targets under the agreement.

International oil prices fell below $70 a barrel in September for the first time since late 2021, but have risen since then.

This week, prices rose about 5% to above $75 on fears that a possible escalation in the Middle East, following Iran’s biggest military strike yet against Israel, could disrupt crude production from the region.

OPEC+ is cutting output by a total of 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7 percent of global demand, in a series of agreed steps from late 2022.

It plans an increase of 180,000 bpd in December as part of a gradual withdrawal of the latest level of voluntary cuts in 2025. The increase has been delayed since October after prices fell.

Country compliance will be the focus at the meeting and in the coming weeks, particularly that of Iraq and Kazakhstan, which have pledged what are known as compensation cuts of 123,000 bpd in September and more in the coming months to offset previous overproduction . .

An OPEC+ source told Reuters last week that clarification on whether compensation cuts were made in September would allow the December hike to go ahead.

However, a lack of compliance could prompt Saudi Arabia and other countries to withdraw their December cuts sooner, analysts said.

“If they don’t comply, we can imagine a faster removal of the voluntary cuts,” RBC Capital’s Helima Croft said in a report.

The JMMC, which brings together oil ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia and other top producers, usually meets every two months and can make recommendations for policy change.