Colombia’s 12-month inflation eased in September despite truckers’ strike: Reuters poll By Reuters

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s 12-month inflation is expected to continue falling in September despite the impact of a truckers’ strike, according to a Reuters poll on Wednesday, while expectations for this year remain stable.

According to the median forecast from 20 analysts, Colombia’s 12-month inflation will reach 5.83 percent by September, lower than the 6.12 percent reported through the end of August, but still well above the long-term target of the central bank of 3%.

If the median forecast is met, consumer prices will rise 0.26% in September, similar to 0.25% in the same month last year, but above the 0% recorded in August.

Analysts’ estimates ranged from 0.17% to 0.38%.

In September, “the education sector is reactivated by the school calendar, while we expect to see moderate inflation in the rest of the sectors,” said Jackeline Pirajan, Scotiabank’s chief economist for Colombia.

She added that the effect of the national strike on food prices was visible at the beginning of the month but was “fading fast”.

The South American country faced a four-day truckers’ strike in the first week of September in protest at rising diesel prices, causing food and fuel shortages in major cities.

The significant slowdown in inflation was the main reason behind the central bank’s interest rate cut by 275 basis points since its downward cycle began in December 2023.

On Monday, the monetary authority cut the rate by 50 basis points to 10.25 percent in a split vote in which three of the seven board members called for a 75 basis point cut. The remaining four were inclined to remain more cautious to control inflation.

Those surveyed now expect inflation to end this year at 5.6%, almost unchanged from the 5.61% forecast last month, while expectations for the end of 2025 fell to 3.70%, down from to 3.75% in the previous survey.