Why could the BNB fall by 10%?

• BNB price is trading near an uptrend line; a firm close below would suggest a decline ahead.
• Chain data paints a bearish picture as BNB’s long-short ratio is below one and TVL is falling.
• A daily candlestick close above $583.1 would invalidate the bearish thesis.

Binance Coin(BNB) price is trading slightly higher at around $548 on Thursday after falling 0.88% on the previous day. It is currently trading near key support and a sustained close below this level could indicate further downside. On-chain data further supports the bearish thesis as BNB’s long-short ratio is below one and Total Value Locked (TVL) is declining, suggesting a potential price drop in the coming days.

BNB price shows weakness

Binance Coin price retested and bounced back several times from its daily resistance level at $612.5. It was again rejected from this level on September 27 and fell 10.6% over the next five days. As of Thursday, it is trading slightly higher during the day around $548, nearing the uptrend line (drawn by connecting several early August lows).

If BNB breaks below the uptrend line and closes below the 200-day EMA around $529.6, it could fall 10% to retest the September 6 low of 471.3 USD.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is further supporting the BNB decline, signaling a bearish crossover on Tuesday. The MACD line has moved below the signal line to provide a sell signal. It also shows rising red histogram bars below the neutral zero line, suggesting that the price of BNB may experience downward momentum.

Additionally, the daily chart’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped sharply to 44, below its neutral level of 50. A move below the neutral level generally indicates bearish momentum is gaining traction.

BNB/USDT daily chart

Crypto tracker Artemis data shows BNB’s TVL fell from $4.8 billion on Sunday to $4.5 billion on Thursday, a steady decline since late September.

This 6% decline in TVL indicates declining activity and interest within the BNB ecosystem. It suggests that fewer users are depositing or using assets within BNB-based protocols, adding credence to the bearish outlook.

BNB TVL chart

Furthermore, Coinglass’ BNB long-short ratio is 0.97, indicating a bearish outlook. The ratio below one reflects bearish sentiment in the market as more traders are betting on the asset price to fall.

Long-short BNB chart

However, the bearish thesis would be invalidated if BNB finds support around the uptrend line and rises to close above Tuesday’s high of $583.1. This scenario would extend the upside to retest the daily resistance level at $612.5.