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WTI rises near $73.50 as Middle East tensions weigh on potential supply disruption

  • The WTI price is receiving support from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions.
  • US President Joe Biden has said that Israel could strike Iran’s oil infrastructure.
  • OPEC+ could make up for a complete loss of oil supply if Iran’s facilities are targeted.

The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil continued to rise for a fourth consecutive day, holding firm with strong weekly gains, trading around $73.50 a barrel during the Asian session on Friday. Crude oil prices are supported by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, raising concerns about potential disruptions to crude supplies from the region, which accounts for about a third of global oil supply.

US President Joe Biden has said that the United States (US) is in discussions with Israel about potential attacks on Iran’s oil infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran “will pay a heavy price” for Tuesday’s attack, which involved the firing of at least 180 ballistic missiles into Israel, according to the BBC.

However, OPEC+, which is made up of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan, has enough spare oil capacity to offset a complete loss of Iranian supply if Israel were to target Iran’s facilities. However, the group would face significant challenges if Iran retaliated by attacking its Gulf neighbors’ oil facilities.

OPEC+ has cut production in recent years to support oil prices in the face of weak global demand, leaving the group with millions of barrels of unused capacity. OPEC+ production cuts currently stand at 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd). Analysts estimate that Saudi Arabia may increase output by 3.0 million bpd, while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) may increase output by 1.4 million bpd.

Libya’s eastern government and the Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation announced on Thursday the reopening of all oil fields and export terminals, following the resolution of a management dispute at the central bank. This decision ends a crisis that has significantly reduced the country’s oil production, according to Reuters.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries in meetings twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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