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Attracting some sellers near 100.00, further consolidation cannot be ruled out

  • AUD/JPY eases to near 100.00 in early Asian session on Friday, down 0.50% on the day.
  • The cross maintains the bullish vibe above the key 100-period EMA, but the RSI indicator shows neutral momentum.
  • The immediate resistance level is located at 100.73; the first negative target appears at the psychological level of 99.00.

The AUD/JPY cross extends its decline to around 100.00 during the European session on Friday. The Japanese yen (JPY) is rising against the Australian dollar (AUD) after comments from Japanese ministers earlier in the day.

New Japanese Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa said on Friday that the timing of changes in the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy should be aligned with the broader goal of exiting deflation. In addition, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi announced Friday that new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has ordered a comprehensive economic package. Hayashi added that he would submit a supplementary budget to Parliament after the lower house elections.

According to the 4-hour chart, the positive outlook for the AUD/JPY cross is prevailing as the cross is holding above the 100-period exponential moving averages (EMA). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the relative strength index (RSI) is hovering around the median line, suggesting neutral cross momentum.

The immediate resistance level appears near the October high at 100.73. Further north, the next upside barrier is seen at 101.35, the upper limit of the Bollinger Band. The additional filter to watch is the 102.00 psychological mark.

On the downside, the 99.00 psychological level acts as an initial support level for the cross. Any further selling below this level will see a decline in the 98.45-98.65 region, representing the 100-period EMA and the lower bound of the Bollinger Band. Extended losses will see the next downside target at 97.63, the September 23 low.

AUD/JPY 4 Hour Chart

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers due to a growing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks. More recently, the gradual unwinding of this ultra-tight policy has provided some support to the yen.

Over the past decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favored the US dollar against the Japanese yen. The BoJ’s decision in 2024 to phase out ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest rate cuts at other major central banks, narrows this gap.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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