XRP will break in after unlocking 1 billion tokens and SEC call

• Ripple unlocked 1 billion XRP tokens on October 1 amid major unlocks in the crypto market.
• Solana and Arbitrum have a combined unlock of over $100 million in tokens in October.
• XRP is holding steady above support at $0.5200, struggling to return to the psychologically important $0.60 level.

Ripple (XRP) rises 2% on Friday. XRP is influenced by several market factors: the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) decision to challenge the final ruling in the Ripple lawsuit, Ripple’s $1 billion token unlock on October 1st, and other token unlocks of this month, including Solana and Arbitrum.

XRP was trading at $0.5328 on Friday, October 4th.

Daily Digest Market Movers: XRP May Not Erase Recent Losses in October

• Ripple executives are currently undecided on whether the payments remittance firm will file an appeal. The firm has 14 days from October 3, the day the US SEC filed an appeal of the final ruling in the Ripple case.
• The SEC appealed the ruling that fined Ripple $125 million for selling XRP tokens to institutions. Judge Analisa Torres upheld her July 2023 ruling that provides legal clarity to XRP as a security in crypto exchange transactions.
• In October, Solana (SOL) and Arbitrum (ARB) will unlock $74 million in SOL and $51 million in ARB tokens.
• Georgy Slavin-Rudakov, CMO at B2BINPAY, told FXStreet:

“October’s crypto market is set to experience significant volatility driven by several large token unlocks. ADA’s recent release of 18.53 million tokens has already introduced selling pressure, with mixed performance in price action. Other major unlocks such as Solana (SOL) and Arbitrum (ARB) may be better equipped to absorb the new supply due to their strong ecosystems. Meanwhile, Ripple’s ongoing legal battle with the SEC continues to shape the market’s outlook on XRP. This case will be key in influencing the future trajectory of XRP. However, I remain optimistic that the outcome will ultimately be favorable for the token, with the potential to reach $10-20 by the end of 2025 and possibly $100-300 by 2030.”

• Ripple’s legal battle with the SEC remains a focal point for XRP holders in October 2024.
• The company’s scheduled release of 1 billion XRP weighed on sentiment among Ripple holders this week.
• CryptoEQ.io’s Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows that sentiment among XRP traders is negative on Friday.

Technical Analysis: XRP Could Correct 10%

Ripple has been in a downtrend for over a year. The altcoin was range-bound between the upper limit of $0.6602 (the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from its peak of $0.9380 in July 2023 to the low of $0.3823 in July 2024) and the lower limit of $0.4780 of the Fair Value Gap (between $0.4780 and $0.5136).

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator shows red histogram bars below the neutral line, signaling the underlying negative momentum in the XRP price trend.

XRP could fall 9.9% and sweep liquidity to $0.4780 if it extends its decline.

XRP/USDT Daily Chart

A daily candlestick close above the psychologically important $0.6000 level could invalidate the bearish thesis. XRP would then attempt a pullback to $0.6602.