close
close
migores1

XAG/USD dips below $32 on lackluster US jobs data

  • Silver price falls sharply below $32.00 as US bond yields continue to rise.
  • The surprisingly upbeat US NFP data forced traders to cut bets on high Fed rates.
  • Tensions in the Middle East are expected to provide support to the price of silver.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) is extending its decline below $32.00 in the European session on Monday. The white metal weakens as US bond yields rise further as the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering another larger-than-usual 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in November has faded .

US 10-year Treasury yields rise slightly above 4%. Higher yields on interest-bearing assets reduce the opportunity cost of holding an investment in non-yielding assets such as silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is clinging to gains near 102.50.

However, silver is unlikely to turn extremely bearish amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel. Historically, geopolitical tensions enhance safe-haven demand for precious metals.

Market speculation for big Fed rate cuts eased after the United States (US) employment report for September showed strong job demand and robust wage growth. Traders are pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate cut in November, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Upbeat labor market data eased fears of an economic slowdown, prompting traders to bet on a second straight 50 basis point interest rate cut in September.

Next, the silver price’s next move will be influenced by US consumer price index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Thursday. Economists expect the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – to have risen steadily by 3.2%.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver price continues to face pressure near the horizontal resistance drawn from the May 20 high of $32.50 on a daily time frame. The white metal is pushing for more success as the outlook is bullish due to the 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), which are trading around $31.00 and $30.00, respectively.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, suggesting more upside.

Silver daily chart

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

Related Articles

Back to top button