Hurricane Milton approaches Category 5 strength as it threatens Florida

Hurricane Milton is on track to become a catastrophic Category 5 storm as it rips through Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on a path to Florida’s west coast, where evacuations are underway in a region still recovering from its devastation Helen.

The storm’s peak winds reached 155 miles (250 kilometers) per hour, just below the threshold for a Category 5 hurricane, the US National Hurricane Center said in a warning at 10 a.m. local time. Its intensity has more than doubled in the last 24 hours.

Related: CoreLogic Raises Hurricane Helene Total Insured Loss Estimate to $10.5B-$17.5B

Widespread power outages are likely, and a small change in Milton’s path could determine whether or not it hits a densely populated area, said Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who declared a state of emergency in 51 counties.

“Please, if you’re in the Tampa Bay area, you need to evacuate,” Kevin Guthrie, director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management, said in a briefing Monday. “Storm drowning deaths are 100% preventable if you leave.”

It is not clear where Milton will end up. Various computer forecast models are at odds, and the hurricane center says errors of up to 100 miles are possible in the days before a storm makes landfall. Milton will likely make landfall between 5 and 9 p.m. Wednesday, AccuWeather Inc. meteorologist Tyler Roys said.

“Milton’s remarkable rapid intensification continues,” Eric Blake, a forecaster at the hurricane center, wrote in his outlook. Only two other hurricanes — Wilma in 2005 and Felix in 2007 — have strengthened as quickly, he added.

Hurricane Milton’s increase in strength comes from warm waters in the Gulf of Mexico, which also intensified the deadly Helene less than two weeks ago. Roys said a ridge of high pressure setting temperature records in Phoenix and the Southwest is helping steer Milton on an unusual west-to-east path across the Gulf. No storm has blazed such a path since 1900.

There is a lot of uncertainty in the damage models for Milton at both the high and low levels, with an average impact estimate of about $35 billion, said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research. There is a chance that Milton will encounter dry air and adverse wind conditions as it approaches the coast, which could further weaken and keep losses low.

Related: Biden to deploy 1,000 troops to help North Carolina after Helene

In addition to ferocious winds, Milton is forecast to push a wall of water ashore that could reach up to 12 feet (3.7 meters) in Tampa Bay and along the coast, including Bradenton and Sarasota, the center said hurricanes.

“There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge from Milton for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning Tuesday night or early Wednesday,” the hurricane center said. “Residents should follow any advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so.”

NASA and SpaceX have delayed Thursday’s launch of the agency’s multibillion-dollar Europa Clipper mission to explore Jupiter’s icy moon. The agency and SpaceX have launch opportunities until Wednesday, November 6.

Milton will be the second major storm to hit Florida in less than two weeks and the fifth hurricane to hit the US this year. At least 227 people died when Hurricane Helene slammed into Florida’s Big Bend area in late September and then sent flooding rains into the Appalachian Mountains, wreaking havoc across the region. Nearly half of all hurricane deaths are from drownings caused by storm surges and inland flooding.

Related: Hurricane Helene Shuts Down Bird Crops, Damages Cotton Crops

Milton threatens to bring wind damage to the northern two-thirds of Florida’s citrus belt this week, according to the Commodity Weather Group. For the second time in two weeks, Amtrak canceled some trains in Florida and stopped others in Jacksonville, the federally funded rail carrier said.

Top photo: Floodwaters on Main Street after Hurricane Helene. Hurricane Milton is on track to become a catastrophic Category 5 storm on a path to Florida’s west coast, where evacuations are underway in a region still recovering from Helene.

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