Hurricane Milton is about to end Tampa’s century of good luck

Milton is poised to deliver a devastating blow to Florida’s vibrant Tampa Bay region, potentially delivering the first direct hit by a hurricane in a century, just as residents and businesses were beginning to take a hit from Helene.

The area, which includes the cities of Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater, it is home to more than 3 million people, a major US military base, Florida’s largest port, beaches that attract tens of millions of tourists a year, and a state university with nearly 50,000 students.

It is also a business hub in the Sunshine State. JPMorgan Chase & Co., which expanded into Florida, has nearly 6,000 employees in Tampa. Other major U.S. banks, such as Citigroup Inc., also have workforces in the area. And it hosts corporations, from technology company Jabil Inc. at investment firm Raymond James Financial Inc. at restaurant operator Bloomin’ Brands Inc.

Preparations for the storm were in their final stages. Forecasters pointed out that Milton is large and will likely have serious impacts no matter where it lands. The Category 4 storm, with maximum sustained winds of 145 miles per hour (233 kilometers per hour), was located about 545 miles southwest of Tampa and was moving east-northeast at 12 miles per hour, according to the more recent National Hurricane Advisory. Center.

“Given how big this storm is, there’s going to be significant damage in different parts of Florida,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a news conference in Tallahassee. He urged residents to evacuate if ordered. “Now is the time to execute your plan.”

The storm’s current track would bring it to land just south of Tampa Bay. Milton’s trajectory could change even more before it hits the Florida peninsula.

The Tampa Bay area was hit hard last month by winds, heavy rain and storm surges on the eastern edge of Helene. While the region is far from where Helene made landfall, its Gulf-facing beaches suffered severe erosion as the storm raced northeastward. Some residents had to be rescued from their homes as they quickly filled with floodwaters.

Milton would strike just as the residents were starting to clean up.

“The sand dunes are gone along the beaches, so the natural protection we had along the coast is gone,” said Matt Anderson, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Tampa. “It’s very unfortunate that we’ve had back-to-back systems like this.”

For the past week, Claire Elisan has been trying to help Helene’s neediest victims. The beaches around her home in Largo, across the bay from Tampa, are lined with destroyed homes and apartment buildings, debris and floodwater that Helene left behind. Elisan said he would probably evacuate, but he feared others would not be able to escape.

“You have a lot of people who can’t get out of their houses, can’t get water,” she said. “There are a lot of people like that in this community, especially disadvantaged people who don’t get the help they need, even to evacuate. I’m very, very worried.”

Hurricane Milton experienced what the US National Hurricane Center called “explosive” intensification on Monday as its winds catapulted from Category 1 to Category 5 strength within 24 hours. Milton is fed unusually warm water from the Gulf of Mexico, which also fueled Helene’s rapid growth.

With strong winds and extremely low barometric pressure readings, Milton at one point ranked among the strongest hurricanes on record in the Gulf of Mexico in the past five decades, behind Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Allen in 1980, according to researcher Philip Klotzbach . at Colorado State University.

Dave Lackore, chief operating officer at Cyndeo Wealth Partners in St. Petersburg, was born and raised in the city. He said Helene and Milton are among the worst storms he has ever seen. He said many areas of the city have become more prone to flooding now than when he was growing up. Cyndeo, which opened during the pandemic in June 2020, allows employees to evacuate or work remotely as needed during the storm.

“It’s a tough time,” Lackore said. “We have people affected by Helene who are still trying to recover from it and now the second round is coming. People are scared of it.”

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Deep Waters

Located along the Gulf of Mexico on Florida’s west coast, the Tampa area sits on the edge of a shallow continental shelf that extends about 100 miles offshore, making it particularly vulnerable to storm surges.

Although it has been grazed by numerous tropical systems over the years, the last direct hit to the region came when Hurricane Tarpon Springs swept ashore in October 1921. The Category 4 storm killed eight people and generated 12 feet (3.5 m) of waves of the storm, destroying docks and ships and upending the local economy.

“This is beyond our memory,” said Jennifer Collins, professor of geosciences at the University of South Florida in Tampa.

The tide at Milton is forecast to be higher than 1921 by up to 15 feet. The Tampa Bay region is much more populated now, especially along the flood-prone shoreline, and the water is higher than it was a century ago.

“The sea level was about a foot lower than it is today, at a time when we didn’t have the infrastructure and population that we have today, and that was still catastrophic,” Collins said.

Bayside Tampa International Airport suspended operations Tuesday, affecting 500 arrivals and departures a day. The forecast storm surge — about twice what Helene brought to the area — is likely to flood runways, roads and some structures, a spokesman said.

Wind hazard

Barbara Tripp, Tampa’s fire chief, said she’s worried the debris left behind by Helene could become fuel for more chaos when Milton arrives.

“We didn’t think we were going to have another hurricane,” Tripp said. “People put everything on the street, just the whole house.”

Tripp said city crews are working in rotating 12-hour shifts, assisted by the Federal Emergency Management Agency and workers from state agencies, to remove rotting wood and piles of trash from areas near the water, including around the base MacDill Airlines. Anything not picked up before Milton makes landfall can become a projectile, causing damage to other structures and posing a threat to humans.

“I’m concerned about the debris not being cleaned up by Helene,” said Tripp, who has lived in Tampa all his life. “Where will the wind take her?”

Tampa has requested high-water vehicles that can safely navigate flood waters, as well as additional fire crews and medical personnel. Medical workers have already arrived, Tripp said, and went to work Monday helping Tampa nursing homes evacuate residents.

Encouraging Evacuation

Emergency management officials have ordered mandatory evacuations in the most vulnerable areas around Tampa Bay and are encouraging others outside those areas to consider leaving. Highways were blocked by residents trying to get out of the storm’s path, which is forecast to sweep across the state at hurricane force and emerge back into the Atlantic Ocean.

Major employers said they are urging employees to protect themselves. A Citigroup spokesman said it was encouraging staff in the path of the storm to work from home. The University of South Florida has encouraged students living on campus to leave and said shelter will be provided for those who need it.

However, some residents are likely to ride out the storm in their homes despite the risks. Collins, the USF professor, has studied hurricane evacuation patterns for years and found that health conditions, financial constraints or personal connections such as pets can prevent people from leaving.

Lackore, the director of Cyndeo in St. Petersburg, said he and his family are following the storm’s path and may evacuate to Vero Beach, which is about 265 miles away on Florida’s East Coast — a trip that could be difficult to done if more. residents decide to flee the Tampa Bay area. However, he said his departure would be temporary. Even with the increased intensity of recent storms, he has no plans to move his company’s business.

“Right now, we’re here for the long haul,” he said. “Most of the partners were born and raised here, and we have strong ties here.”

For others, there are growing doubts. Normally, Trudy Azarsepandan, an attorney for a real estate developer, feels pretty good about riding out the storms at her home in New Tampa, 20 miles northeast of downtown. The power lines are underground, the area is designed to drain quickly and her house is solidly built.

However, when Milton quickly strengthened to Category 5, she started to get nervous. Azarsepandan, 44, grew up in Miami, where vicious thunderstorms were the norm. Her family was without power for two months after Hurricane Andrew in 1992. The prospect of high winds in Milton prompted her to consider evacuating with her husband and 12-year-old son.

They’re just not sure where to go.

“Some places are getting way more water than the infrastructure can handle, being hammered over and over again,” she said. “I don’t know how much we can take.”

Top photo: Workers line up at a business ahead of Hurricane Milton’s expected landfall in St. Petersburg, Florida, USA, Monday, October 7, 2024. Milton has become a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane as it approaches Florida’s west coast, where residents have begun fleeing inland in a region still recovering from the devastation of Helene.

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