EU unveils new sanctions to counter Russian hybrid warfare

The ambassadors of the 27 member states of the European Union agreed on October 2 on a new sanctions mechanism aimed at Russia’s hybrid actions. Broadly speaking, “hybrid” here means actions carried out on behalf of one state to undermine the functioning of another country, so for example, trying to affect elections or targeting critical infrastructure. The new measures are expected to be formally approved by the bloc’s finance ministers when they meet in Luxembourg on October 8.

The new sanctions regime is, according to EU diplomats I spoke with, intended to plug some of the loopholes in the current restrictive measures on the Kremlin.

Essentially, the EU has two types of sanctions regimes: geographic and horizontal. Brussels has mostly used geographic sanctions — which focus on a specific location or political entity — to hit Russia since its large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. In short, they target the Russian government, citizens and its entities, such as companies, which the bloc considers to have undermined Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

In this area, Brussels has gone quite far — introducing all sorts of economic sanctions on various Russian industries, such as oil, diamonds and coal, to name but a few, as well as imposing visa bans and asset freezes for approximately 2,300 people and companies.

Then, on top of that, there are horizontal sanctions that are not limited to one country and target people and companies around the world. In this area, the bloc has sanctions related to terrorism, cyber attacks, the use of chemical weapons and human rights violations. Russian citizens are blacklisted under these horizontal sanctions.

Deep background: Earlier this year, the EU created something of a combination of a geographic and horizontal sanctions regime — creating a blacklist of people who commit human rights abuses in Russia. The sanctions largely targeted those responsible for the imprisonment and ill-treatment of Russian opposition figures, such as Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was released from a Russian prison last month in a major prisoner exchange between Russia and the West, as well as Aleksei Navalny, who died. under mysterious circumstances in a Russian prison in February.

The sanctions agreed by the EU are a similar mix. But in fact, they go one step further. The text, drawn up by the legal service of the EU Council, one of the bloc’s main decision-making bodies, and seen by RFE/RL, states that the EU is free to impose asset freezes and visa bans on individuals or entities that are “responsible for, implementing, supporting or benefiting from actions or policies of the government of the Russian Federation that undermine or threaten democracy, the rule of law, stability or security in the Union or in one or more of its member states; in an international organization or in a third country.”

So, in a sense, it covers not only Russian citizens, but also other citizens working for Russia – and it involves not only actions taken in the European Union, but also around the world. Brussels could, in other words, now go after a broad spectrum of Russian activities, not just limited to a narrow geographic area (like Ukraine) or very specific actions (like human rights abuses).

The two big challenges ahead, however, will be defining hybrid actions, or “destabilizing activities” as the official document states, and then proving that Russia is responsible.

It will be up to member states to present convincing evidence that the bloc’s legal service can approve. This is likely to prove difficult, especially given that all 27 member states must sign. It’s also unclear how far the sanctions can go — or whether potential new listings will only be able to target recent actions.

Drilling down:

• The legal text lists eight different examples that are punishable. The first is perhaps the broadest: “obstructing or undermining the democratic political process,” which includes attempting to alter elections or challenge a country’s constitutional order.
• Proving that Russia is actually intervening in an EU member state is likely to be difficult. However, the new sanctions could open up possibilities for the bloc to punish Russians who try to meddle in vulnerable third countries. Case in point: Both Georgia and Moldova are holding crucial elections this month. Georgia holds parliamentary elections on October 20.
• The second example listed in the EU legal document concerns planning, leading or engaging in violent demonstrations. Diplomats I spoke to said this could apply to a situation such as the recent riots in the United Kingdom, which began in July after the fatal stabbing of three girls in the northern English town of Southport. Disinformation helped fuel the riots, which developed strong anti-Muslim and anti-migrant sentiment. If the Russians were found to be supporting the online protests, they could be targeted if something similar happened.
• The third punishable offense is activities that “silence, intimidate, coerce or retaliate against persons who criticize the actions or policies of the Russian Federation.” So, for example, this could apply to something like the hammer and tear gas attack in Lithuania earlier this year on Leonid Volkov, a former close associate of Navalny.
• Then there is “coordinated information handling”. A good example of the type of activity this could apply to would be the Prague-based website Voice of Europe, which was sanctioned by both the Czech Republic and the EU earlier this year for running of Russian influence.
• Another punishable offense would be targeting critical infrastructure in EU member states. These include crimes such as damaging submarine cables, but could also include arson attacks on buildings and public transport.
• What the EU has called the “instrumentalization of migrants” could also be targeted, with examples seen at the borders of Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, where Belarusian authorities, often backed by Russia, have been accused of transporting migrants, mainly from Asia . , and then sending them to the borders of nearby EU countries.
• The last two items on the EU list are activities that Wagner and other Russian-sponsored mercenary groups are most likely to carry out. The EU would target actions such as “inciting or facilitating an armed conflict in a third country” and exploiting such armed conflicts through “the illicit exploitation or trade of natural resources and wildlife in a third country”. This is a reference to the illegal trade in ivory or diamonds.

Via RFE/RL

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