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WTI is holding below $73.50 as tensions in the Middle East ease

  • WTI attracts some sellers near $73.35 in the first Asian session on Wednesday.
  • Possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, continued concerns about China’s demand could undermine WTI price.
  • Rising geopolitical risks in the Middle East could limit upside for WTI.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the benchmark US crude, is trading around $73.35 on Wednesday. WTI price falls on report of possible ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel. However, fears of a potential attack on Iran’s oil infrastructure could limit its downside.

Investors trimmed their war risk bets as the lack of further escalation eased fears of a Middle East oil supply disruption. This in turn weighs on the day’s WTI price. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant will meet with US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin at the Pentagon on Wednesday to discuss security developments in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, developments surrounding geopolitical tension in the region will be closely watched. Fears that Israel could target Iran’s oil industry in retaliation for Tehran’s ballistic missile attack could lift the price of black gold.

U.S. crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories in the United States for the week ended October 4 increased by 10.9 million barrels, compared with a decrease of 1.5 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus expected inventories to rise by just 1.95 million barrels.

Disappointment that Chinese officials did not announce new stimulus measures at a news conference on Tuesday is contributing to the disappointment in WTI as China is the world’s largest crude importer. “Lingering concerns about Chinese demand persist due to a lack of stimulus, while the conflict in the Middle East has not led to any supply disruptions,” said Svetlana Tretyakova, senior oil market analyst at Rystad Energy.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices down. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries in meetings twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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