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XAG/USD bears edge near three-week low, $30.00 holds key

  • Silver drew some sellers for the third day in a row on Wednesday.
  • The technical setup supports the outlook for a further bearish move.
  • Any attempt at recovery is likely to remain capped near the $31.00 level.

Silver (XAG/USD) is struggling to capitalize on the overnight rebound from the vicinity of the psychological $30.00 mark, or a three-week low, and is trading in a downtrend for the third day in a row on Wednesday. The white metal is currently sitting just above the mid-$30.00s and looks vulnerable to extending its slide back from the December 2012 high reached last week.

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find support above the $32.00 level constitute the formation of a multi-top bear pattern on the daily chart. Furthermore, the oscillators on the daily chart have started to gain negative traction and validate the short-term bearish outlook for XAG/USD. Therefore, a further slide below the $30.00 level towards testing the next relevant support near the $29.75-$29.60 confluence seems a distinct possibility.

The latter comprises the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50-day SMA, which, if decisively broken, should pave the way for a new bearish move in the near term. XAG/USD could then accelerate the decline towards the $29.00 level and eventually decline to the $28.60-$28.50 support area.

On the other hand, any attempted recovery could now face immediate resistance and remain capped near the $31.00 level. That said, a sustained move beyond could trigger a short-covering move and lift XAG/USD to the $31.55 hurdle en route to the $31.75-$31.80 region and the 32 threshold. 00 USD. This is followed by the $32.25 supply area, above which the white metal could look to challenge the multi-year peak and make another attempt to capture the $33.00 round figure.

Silver daily chart

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Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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