Greg McElroy gives Brent Venables a 10% chance to win the national championship in Oklahoma

Oklahoma it is approaching 25 years since its last national championship. Bob leaned over was the head coach while Josh Heupel was the starting quarterback. There have been a few opportunities for the Sooners since then, but BCS national championship games or College Football Playoff appearances have fallen short.

Brent Venables was tasked with taking the program back to the promised land. Year One wasn’t great, finishing 6-7 for Oklahoma’s first losing season since 1998. Everyone in Norman enjoyed last season a lot more, getting back to winning ways and building some momentum inside the building.

Even so, ESPN analyst Greg McElroy gives Oklahoma just a 10 percent chance to win a national championship under Venables. A number he considers pretty good, but probably not what Sooner fans want to hear.

“People will probably say, ‘That’s a very small number.’ I think the probability of winning a national championship right here at Oklahoma under Brent Venables is 10 percent,” McElroy said.

“Which to me seems like a pretty good number. Because for me, right now, if I were to rank the SEC one-to-16 before ’24, I have Oklahoma somewhere in the middle. Which means they’re in the vicinity of an 8-4, 7-5 football team.”

McElroy is actually where Oklahoma’s roster is right now. Venables has put together a capable defense, and if the defensive line works, it should be in the solid to elite range at all three levels.

Jackson Arnold take the offensive for Dillon Gabriel, his first full season as a starter. Arnold has long-term confidence, but growing pains are natural for any young quarterback. Even with some great weapons around him at wide receiver.

What hurts Oklahoma in the 2024 season for McElroy is the schedule. The SEC did them no favors between tough opponents and intimidating road atmospheres. A few “Welcome to the Show” moments are definitely in the pipeline.

“How capable is Oklahoma right now of competing in the Southeastern Conference? Because I really like Oklahoma this year, I said that. I think their talent is good at all three defensive levels. I think they have a good defender.

“It may take some time for her to become a star, but she has the talent to do so. And I think they’re very good wide receivers … I’m very optimistic about what Oklahoma is going to be, I think this year’s schedule is outrageously difficult,” McElroy said.

In the bigger picture, moving to the SEC hurts Oklahoma more than it helps, according to McElroy. Dominating the Big 12 for years helped propel the Sooners into the national championship picture. Now, several other schools are vying for the same award, making the competition quite stiff.

“I think there’s going to be a little bit of growing pains as they move up the league,” McElroy said. “And as a result, I’m going to put that number a little lower than I probably would if they stayed in the Big 12. Because in the Big 12, they have a much better chance of getting into the playoffs. . I just don’t know if it’s going to happen annually in the SEC.”