Where the 4th of July election will be won and lost in Birmingham, Wolverhampton and Walsall

The West Midlands will be a key battleground in the July 4 general election called today in a shock statement from Tory First Minister Rishi Sunak. The Labor Party will go into the six-week campaign confident that it can rebuild the “red wall” at the heart of the country.

Top of his list of local targets will be Wolverhampton West, a redrawn version of the existing Wolverhampton South West seat, which was won by Stuart Anderson by less than 1% in the 2019 election. Birmingham Northfield and MP Gary Sambrook will be, also under attack from a Labor salvo, with local councilor Alex Aitken hoping to overturn his slim majority of just 1,478 votes.

With 57 seats up for grabs in the region – two fewer than in 2019 following boundary changes and some seats with new names – the region will be a focal point and likely to be flooded with party big wigs as the two major parties go head to head. Labor will at least look to claw back the seats it lost to the Boris Johnson-led Tories in 2019 to help it build a majority.

But the Tories will not give in easily, despite polls showing Labor with a 20-point lead. Special focus will also be placed on the Conservative seats of Dudley, Cannock Chase and the redrawn seats of West Bromwich, Walsall and Bloxwich and Wolverhampton North East. All are held tight.

READ MORE: Rishi Sunak calls general election for July 4 as PM makes statement

Walsall and Bloxwich, a redraw drawn from parts of Walsall North and Walsall South, is at risk – Labor will need to overturn an estimated 2.4% majority. In West Bromwich West, just 2,150 votes separated the Tories and Labor – now renamed Tipton and Wednesbury. For the Tories it will be current West Bromwich West MP Shaun Bailey.

Further afield, Worcester and Shrewsbury are also vulnerable. Other Tory MPs in the region will be looking over their shoulders despite relatively healthy majorities. Stourbridge is a seesaw that has been in the hands of the Tories and Labor in recent years. It is currently held by Conservative Suzanne Webb with a majority of 13,571. So far, Labour’s Cllr Cat Eccles and Chris Bramall for the Lib Dems are known candidates to challenge Ms Webb.

It won’t just be about Tories and Labour, though. A significant number of candidates will fill regional seats for the Lib Dems, Greens, Reform UK, The Workers Party of GB and fringe parties. In Birmingham, in particular, we expect a number of independent candidates with a strong focus on the Gaza crisis.

Constituencies across the country were recently redrawn as part of a national overhaul aimed at equalizing representation. Thus, the number of constituencies was reduced at the local level from 59 to 57.

Campaigning will begin immediately, with the pre-election period to be announced soon. Parliament will be adjourned on Friday, it has been announced, meaning dozens of ongoing bills will collapse. The dissolution will take place on Thursday, May 30, with the new Parliament returning after the elections.