Election poll predicts five new MPs for Leicester and Leicestershire

Leicestershire could have five new MPs after the country goes to the polls on Thursday, July 4. YouGov this week released its first set of forecasts in the run-up to this year’s snap general election.

The market research and data analytics firm estimates that the Labor Party is on course to win 422 of Parliament’s 650 seats and a 194-seat majority. YouGov described it as “historic” and “beyond landslide territory (victory). The results were made up of “patterned responses from 53,334 adults in England and Wales and 5,541 in Scotland”.

If correct, this result would be the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s 210 in 1924, the organization added. The East Midlands will play a part in this victory, it seems.

READ MORE: All the candidates for the 2024 Leicester and Leicestershire General Election that we know are running so far

The party is expected to take 33 seats in the East Midlands, compared to just eight in 2019. Instead, the Conservative Party looks set for huge losses in the region if the poll is correct. YouGov has them winning just 14 seats, down from 38 in 2019.

So what is the Leicestershire picture? Between the county and the city, we are ready to go out with five new parliamentarians.

Three of these would come from Labor victories in previously Tory seats. The YouGov poll echoes earlier predictions that Labor candidate Jeevun Sandher should take Jane Hunt’s seat in Loughborough. Ms Hunt is running again in the Conservative constituency.

Andrew Bridgen’s North West Leicestershire seat is also predicted to swing to the left, with Labour’s Amanda Hack claiming victory there. While Mr Bridgen ended his term as an independent MP after a short stint with Reclaim, this would still count as a loss for the Conservatives as he won the seat for the party in 2019.

A possible new twist in the county polls, however, was revealed by YouGov’s predictions. If the results prove accurate, Harborough, Oadby and Wigston MP Neil O’Brien is also at risk of losing his seat.

YouGov suggests that Labor candidate Hajira Piranie could narrowly escape victory in the constituency, winning 38 per cent of the vote to Mr O’Brien’s 34 per cent. YouGov described the tight race between the two as a “toss up”.

Leicester East could also be set for a new representative in Parliament. Labour’s candidate Rajesh Agrawal is on course to take the seat held by independent Claudia Webbe, the YouGov poll suggests, again reversing earlier predictions for the seat. Ms Webbe has confirmed that she will run for the seat again, but as an independent candidate.

However, this would count as a setback for Labour, as Ms Webbe won the seat for the party in 2019 before being expelled from the party after being convicted of harassing Michelle Merritt, a friend of her boyfriend, Lester Thomas. Ms Webbe received an apology from the Crown Prosecution Service after an independent body found she had failed to correct reports she threatened to throw acid on Ms Merritt, which she did not.

Labor is “likely” to win the seat, YouGov said, taking 45% of the vote. The Conservatives are to come in second place with 24%, and the Green Party in third place with 10%. Ms Webbe would fall under the ‘other’ category in the YouGov results. The organization estimates that 8% of the votes will go to other candidates.

Leicestershire’s latest new MP would come as a result of the introduction of a new constituency in the county – Mid Leicestershire. The Conservative Party is expected to win the seat, with candidate Peter Bedford becoming its first MP.

However, YouGov again described the constituency’s expected results as a “revenge”. Mr Bedford is expected to take 39 per cent of the vote, compared to 34 per cent for Labour’s Robert Martin.

The remaining five seats are expected to remain in the hands of the winners in 2019. Both Jonathon Ashworth’s Leicester South and Liz Kendall’s Leicester West seats were described as “safe” Labor holdings in the YouGov results.

The recently reformed seat of Melton and Syston is expected to be another close result but is tipped to be held by Conservative Edward Argar. Areas in the Charnwood constituency won by Mr Argar at the last election will form part of the newly named seat, while the rest will move from the current Bosworth and South Leicestershire seats.

Mr Argar is expected to take 37% of the vote. Labour’s Zafran Khan is set for a 34% share.

The rebranded seat of Hinckley and Bosworth is also set for a Tory position, YouGov suggests. Dr Luke Evans is expected to take 40% of the vote. Much of the remaining share will be closely shared by Labor and the Liberal Democrats, who are expected to take 22% and 20% respectively.

Finally, South Leicestershire also looks likely to tilt in favor of the Tories. 2019 winner Alberto Costa would retain his seat if the poll is correct. He is expected to win 41 percent of the vote, with Labor again coming in second on 33 percent.

You can find a list of candidates who have declared themselves to be running so far here. A breakdown of the constituency changes can be found here.