Why is Swindon leading the way to the general election results?

Swindon is one of the main electoral battlegrounds in the West of England between the Tories and Labour, but it is also a key indicator of how the country votes in general. In every election since 1983, the Wiltshire town has consistently elected MPs from the party in power.

Since 1997, the city has been divided into two constituencies – North and South – which have continued this form for the election of the party that comes to power.

But what is it about the city that makes it such a reliable predictor of how the nation feels, known as the “belwether” seat?

None of this is an exact science, of course, but it is believed to be largely due to the combination of the way the electoral map is drawn, alongside the nature of Swindon’s population, which closely mirrors what is typical of England.

“There’s no doubt that by any statistical analysis it’s a pretty common place – no insult intended,” poll analyst and Tory peer Lord Robert Hayward told me.

“If we look at almost any element of demographics, Swindon comes out pretty close to the average, whether it’s income, age or education.”

Not being a particularly ‘old’ place in terms of population and not having a university to bring in a disproportionate number of younger adults, Swindon has a large number of working-age families with school-age children.

This is a key group when it comes to elections, according to University of Bristol political sociology professor Paula Surridge.

“They’re the group that don’t tend to have a strong allegiance to one side or the other,” Professor Surridge said.

“They tend to change a little bit more depending on how the election goes, and that’s why we see these seats swing.”

But there are also geographic reasons – demographics have to be combined with how the city is divided during elections.

Many large towns or small towns the size of Swindon have what Lord Hayward calls a “doughnut” formation, where the central area forms a constituency, around which other constituencies take the suburbs and fringes.

But Swindon is different. The constituency map uses the railway line through the center to cut the city in half – resulting in both its north and south having a full spread of communities from the center to the countryside.

“The result is that you have two very, very interesting marginal constituencies that are swinging back and forth,” Lord Hayward said.

While this means Labor and the Tories dominate in Swindon as they do nationally, Professor Surridge notes that the town also typically reflects the national vote share for other parties “so we could see that trend continue”.

“If Swindon changes colour, the government is likely to too,” added Professor Surridge.