Brent and Harrow: General Election 2024

Along with the rest of the country, residents of Brent and Harrow are set to go to the polls this summer to choose which of the lucky candidates they believe will best represent their interests in Parliament over the next five years.

Last month, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a snap general election for July 4, with the ruling party widely expected to lose power. At the local level, the general election is likely to be relatively uneventful, largely predicting that the incumbents will not only win, but win easily. Except for one place, that is.

In 2019, Tory MP Bob Blackman won the Harrow East seat with a majority of 8,170 – taking 54.4% of the vote. However, according to Electoral Calculus – an “opinion poll” used to predict the outcome of an election if it were held tomorrow – he has an 84% chance of losing his seat to the Labor candidate, Primesh Patel.

READ MORE: London General Election 2024 candidates – full list for every MP seat

It should be noted that these predictions do not use individual constituency polls, they are formed by translating the current national party swing from the 2019 election into predictions for individual seats for this election.

However, Labor has led in every poll since 2021 and the average lead has varied between 12 per cent – although this low percentage is an abnormally large value – and 27 per cent, with recent by-elections seeing historic swings of up to 28 per cent . from Tory to Labour, certainly gives Mr Blackman cause for concern.

Electoral calculation predicts that the other four seats which fall in Brent and Harrow will be won “100 per cent” by either the sitting MP – all from the Labor Party – or in the case of the newest seat, Queens Park and Maida. Vale, the Labor candidate. Not only will Gareth Thomas from Harrow West, Dawn Butler from Brent East (formerly Brent Central) and Barry Gardiner from Brent West (formerly Brent North) win, they are all expected to increase their vote share by around 10%.

Against a backdrop of growing NHS waiting lists, rising immigration, cuts to local government finances and the biggest fiscal story for 70 years, it may come as a surprise to many that the Tories are campaigning under the slogan “let’s keep of plan”.

Labour’s message to voters is one of change. Not just change for the economy and public service delivery, but that of a changed party, ready to serve and stop the “chaos of a Tory government”. However, the candidate selection process has come close to plunging the party into factional infighting, amid accusations that Mr Starmer is stopping candidates further to the left of the party from standing.

Voters are asked to take a look at all the candidates on offer locally and tick the box who they feel represents their views and will most effectively support them at Westminster.

All five seats in Harrow and Brent have a wide range of candidates, from several different parties and independents, to choose from. Use the map above to click on your constituency and meet the candidates who want to represent you over the next five years.

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