Premier League title swaps: How Arsenal and Manchester City can be crowned champions

The Premier League’s top two teams have each played 36 games, but there is still little to separate them as we head into the final week of the season.

Manchester City’s 4-0 win over Fulham on Saturday moved them two points clear of Arsenal, with Josko Gvardiol (two), Phil Foden and Julian Alvarez on the scoresheet at Craven Cottage in a game that reduced the lead significant of the Gunners against the goal difference.

Arsenal return to action on Sunday with the trip to face Manchester United – a ground that has not been kind to them in the past – with just one win in their last 16 visits to Old Trafford.

With such fine margins deciding who will lift the Premier League title next Sunday, The Athletic destroy the game state.

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What happens if the teams are tied on points?

If Arsenal and City finish on the same number of points, the title will be decided by which side has the better goal difference. If there is still nothing to separate them, the number of goals scored will be compared, then the team that has won the most points in the head-to-head matches, then the team that has scored the most away goals in the head-to-head -head.

If it comes down to it, Arsenal have a head-to-head advantage over City. Arsenal beat City 1-0 at the Emirates Stadium in October before the sides played out a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium in March.

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The remaining fixings

the city of Manchester

Arsenal

• Manchester United (A) – May 12 (4.30pm BST, 11.30am ET, 8.30am PT)
• Everton (H) – May 19 (4pm BST, 11am ET, 8am PT)

How Manchester City can win the title

City’s task is, at face value, relatively simple: win their remaining two games and they will be crowned Premier League champions for the fourth year in a row. No team has ever achieved such a feat in English football.

Given that they are two points ahead of Arsenal, the Manchester side need to match or better their rivals’ results in their last two games.

However, if City lose or draw against Tottenham on Tuesday, the door is open for Arsenal ahead of the final round of fixtures – assuming they beat Manchester United on Sunday.

If Arsenal beat Manchester United, the title race will go down to the final day of the season, regardless of City’s result against Spurs. If City do not beat Spurs, they will go into the final day needing to better Arsenal’s result on goal difference to have any chance of lifting the Premier League trophy. And if both sides are victorious in their last games, City must win by at least one more goal to equalize on goal difference.

If Arsenal lose or draw at Old Trafford, City can win the title by beating Tottenham.

If Arsenal lose or draw against Manchester United and City then do the same against Spurs, the title will again be decided next Sunday. City would need to match or better Arsenal’s result to finish above them.

City have already faced Tottenham away from home this season, winning 1-0 in January’s FA Cup fourth round victory (Photo: Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

How Arsenal can win the title

After City’s win over Fulham, Arsenal know they realistically need to win both of their games to have any chance of securing their first Premier League title since 2003-04.

If Arsenal beat Manchester United, City cannot win the title against Spurs as they would be a point behind Mikel Arteta’s side ahead of Tuesday’s game.

If Arsenal lose or draw against Manchester United, things get a little more complicated.

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If Arsenal beat Manchester United…

A win against Erik ten Hag’s side would be huge for Arsenal’s title chances and would put the pressure firmly on City ahead of their game in hand. Arsenal will move back to within a point of City ahead of Tuesday’s game.

Should City lose against Tottenham, Arsenal would have to equal or better their result on the final day.

Should City draw against Spurs, they would be level on points with Arsenal but behind them on goal difference. Arsenal should again match or better City’s result on the final day, but if both teams win, Arteta’s side would need a win by a sufficient margin to maintain their superior goal difference.

If City beat Spurs, they would be two points ahead of Arsenal. Arsenal should win and hope City don’t do the same on the final day against West Ham. A draw for City against Spurs will again play into Arsenal’s hands on goal difference.

Arsenal’s last win at Old Trafford was in November 2020 (Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

If Arsenal draw against Manchester United…

A draw against Manchester United means Arsenal would be a point behind City.

Should City then lose at Spurs, Arsenal would need to better their result on the final day to be crowned champions. Again, due to their goal advantage, Arsenal could win the title if they draw against Everton and City lose against West Ham.

Should City draw at Spurs, Arsenal would again be two points behind them before the final day. This means they should win and hope City draw or lose, with goal difference again a potential advantage for Arsenal.

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If Arsenal lose against Manchester United…

A defeat at Old Trafford would leave Arsenal two points behind City.

If City then lose at Spurs, Arsenal would have to beat Everton and hope City don’t win against West Ham. Arsenal’s superior goal difference means it is likely they could afford City to draw their last game.

Should City draw at Spurs, Arsenal would be three points behind them going into the final day. That means Arsenal would have to beat Everton and hope City lose against West Ham to win the title.

If City beat Spurs, Pep Guardiola’s side will clinch the title before the final day.

(Top photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images)