The Barnet seats are key to a predicted Labor victory

VaselineJune 28, 2024

0 4 minutes read

The Barnet seats are key to a predicted Labor victory

David Floyd on Chipping Barnet, Finchley and Golders Green and Hendon general election battles

British Parliament Buildings seen from across the river – (Credit – David Floyd)

Barnet will be in the national spotlight as the borough’s three main parliamentary constituencies help decide the fate of the general election.

Polls predict the Conservative Party is likely to lose in Chipping Barnet, Finchley and Golders Green and Hendon as Labor returns to power for the first time in 14 years and the Friern Barnet borough becomes part of a new seat of Hornsey and Brother. Barnet, following boundary changes.

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Much of the messaging from local candidates in the run-up to the election reflects the national picture, with the only previous MP standing for re-election, Chipping Barnet’s Theresa Villiers, declaring her credentials as a possible opposition MP. Writing for Barnett Post she tells local voters, “You’ve seen the polls. If Keir Starmer becomes Prime Minister, your values and priorities will need a voice. You will need an MP to stand up to a Labor government and stand up to Sadiq Khan.”

While the Conservatives have held Chipping Barnet since its creation in 1974, Villiers only had a majority of 1,212 in 2019, despite Labour’s poor performance overall and particular local opposition to then-leader Jeremy Corbyn.

She has campaigned hard on local issues throughout parliament and has particularly exploited concerns over housing developments and ULEZ expansion, but it looks very likely that Labour’s Dan Tomlinson will take the seat.

Writing for Barnett Post during the campaign Tomlinson highlighted the problem of crime saying: “Labour plans to hire 1,300 more officers in London and as your voice in parliament I will make sure we get our fair share here in Chipping Barnet. A visible police presence not only deters crime but also reassures the community.”

He added: “My stake in this issue is not just political, it is deeply personal. As a parent with a young family in Whetstone, I share the same concerns as any resident. The safety of our children and the protection of our property are non-negotiable.”

Straight fight for Finchley

In Finchley and Golders Green, incumbent MP Mike Freer has chosen not to run for the seat following death threats and an arson attack on his office. And the surprise decision to hold the election in July did not give his Tory replacement Alex Deane much time to campaign after his selection in March.

Finchley and Golders Green is theoretically the safest Conservative seat due to Freer’s 6,562 majority in 2019, however this result is very misleading as a predictor of the future vote due to former Labor MP Luciana Berger’s second place for the Liberal Democrats .

Based on national polls and the results of the 2022 Barnet Council election, where the Lib Dems made very little impact, this time the contest is between Deane and Labour’s Sarah Sackman.

Deane wrote for Barnett Post that he: “couldn’t sit idly by” after Freer’s decision to resign and called for a “battle of ideas” in contrast to the attacks on Freer, yet Sackman looks set to win by a wide margin.

Her campaign focused on issues such as child poverty, crime and cuts to health services. Writing for Barnett Post in June she said: “Standing on hold at 8am for basic healthcare shouldn’t be a fact of life in 2024, but it is.”

Labor force in Hendon

While the logical chances of the Tories holding the marginal third ward seat in Hendon are extraordinarily slim, it is one of the three where, privately at least, the local Tories are most hopeful and Labor are the most nervous.

Incumbent MP Matthew Offord announced his decision to stand down a year ago and his Tory replacement Ameet Jogia, a Harrow councilor who also works as an adviser to First Minister Rishi Sunak, has run an active local campaign. He particularly focused on opposition to unpopular local developments, including the Broadwalk Center development in Edgware, and wrote for Barnett Post of Hendon Hub said: “I am concerned that developments like these show that residents are no longer being prioritized.”

Jogia faces David Pinto-Duschinsky of the Labor Party, who trailed Offord by 4,230 votes in 2019. Barnett Post earlier this year, Pinto-Duschinsky said: “This is a great country and we can reclaim our future. We don’t have to live in chaos. There is another way; a better alternative for our constituency and our country.”

While the result in Hendon could be closer than in the borough’s other constituencies, it would be a massive surprise if Labor failed to take the seat.

As the district prepares to play a key role in determining the nation’s future, a minor twist to this year’s electoral process is a new venue for the count, which will take place at the RAF Museum in Colindale. Unless something very dramatic happens in the coming week, the ground battle has only one likely winner.

Barnett Post gave all candidates in the ward seats a chance to publish statements. Read an overview of the competition and statements for: Chipping Barnet, Finchley and Golders Green, Hendon and Hornsey and Friern Barnet.

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