Key moments of the general election – LBC

July 3, 2024, 3:02 p.m

Thursday’s general election night will be a long one for everyone working in British politics and those following.

People will be voting all day in the UK, before the counting of votes begins up and down the country.

Seats will be declared throughout the night and a picture of who will be the next government will start to become clearer as the night wears on.

Here we look at what could happen over the course of the night.

• Join LBC’s UK Decide our election night coverage from Thursday at 10pm. Our flagship program will be hosted by Andrew Marr and Shelagh Fogarty, with news anchors Jon Sopel and Lewis Goodall providing expert analysis as the results unfold. This comprehensive seven-hour show will be broadcast live on LBC, global player, Tickand YouTube, with a simulcast on LBC News. Stay tuned for real-time updates and insightful commentary throughout this pivotal night in British politics.

22:00 – Polls close

Voting takes place on Thursday from 7:00 AM until 10:00 PM that evening. After that, it will not be possible to vote, and the votes will begin to be counted.

At the same time, the exit poll will be published, giving a picture of how the elections went. In recent years, they have been very accurate in predicting the outcome.

That means 10pm will be when we get our first idea of ​​who won.

From 23:00 – The first places are declared

Sometime after 11 p.m., the first of the 650 seats will declare their results. There are likely to be two Labor seats in the North East: Blyth and Ashington at around 11.30pm and Houghton and Sunderland South at around 11.45pm.

Labour’s shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson is defending a narrow majority of around 3,271 in Houghton and Sunderland South.

Blyth & Ashington is a new constituency created by redrawing constituency boundaries; Labor has a notional majority of 6,118 there.

The result in these seats could give an idea of ​​how Labor will perform in seats where they have relatively small majorities, and more of a picture of how Reform UK has fared.

12:00-1:00 – early key seats likely to be declared

The first major battleground – Swindon South – is likely to declare at around 12.15pm.

Former Tory justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland is up against Heidi Alexander, the former MP for Lewisham East. Sir Robert has a majority of 5,650, but this could be the kind of seat Labor could easily win if the opinion polls are to be believed.

That means a Labor victory in Swindon South could indicate the kind of large majority that many polls have predicted.

Other seats that could be declared around this time include Basildon and Billericay, where Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden is running for re-election. The seat has a Tory majority of more than 20,000, but some local campaigners were dismayed that Mr Holden was named as a candidate by party officials just days before nominations closed.

Broxbourne in Hertfordshire will also declare during this period. The Conservatives have a majority of over 12,000 in this seat and have held it continuously since its creation in 1983.

If the Conservatives lose one or both of these previously safe seats, it could signal a seismic reworking of the electoral map.

1am – Key Scottish Places

After 1pm, several Scottish venues – East Kilbride & Strathaven, Hamilton & Clyde Valley and Rutherglen – will declare.

These are SNP-held seats that are targeted by Labour. It is essential for Labor to return more MPs to Scotland if it is to return to power with a decisive majority.

Elsewhere, the Lib Dems could make their first gains of the night in Harrogate and Knaresborough. Sir Ed Davey’s party needs an eight percentage point swing from the Tories to take a seat they last held in 2010.

2am – stream of statements likely to begin

More than 60 seats are set to declare between 02:00 and 03:00, with the results sprinkling turning into a rush.

Among the key seats to watch around 2.30am is Cannock Chase in Derbyshire, which Labor hopes to take from the Tories. A win here for Sir Keir Starmer’s party could be another sign of a big Labor victory. That would be a huge win: The seat needs a whopping 21.5 percentage point swing to change hands.

Labour’s George Galloway will find out if he has kept his Rochdale seat, which he took from Labor earlier this year.

The Lib Dems are likely to find out if they have won Stratford-on-Avon from the Tories. The Midlands seat, until recently held by former chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, is a long shot for the Lib Dems.

Sir Keir is likely to hear the result for his own seat of Holborn and St Pancras in central London at around 2.30am. It has a very safe majority of over 22,000.

Mid Bedfordshire – the former seat of Nadine Dorries, taken by Labor in October for the first time in its 106-year history – is due to be declared at around 2.45am. Again, a win here would suggest Labor is on course for a huge victory.

Bolsover in Derbyshire, which was held by the Conservatives in 2019, having been held by Labor for the past 69 years, will be another place to watch this time around.

Peterborough and Redcar are two more Labor targets due to declare between 2am and 3am, while the Lib Dems will be hoping to hear of a positive result for them in the Devon seat of Torbay.

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3:00 – the busiest time of the night

The hour after 3am will be the busiest time for seat declarations, with around 250 results expected – over a third of all MPs in the next Parliament.

Justice Secretary Alex Chalk is one of the cabinet members whose seat in the Commons is at risk, with his Cheltenham seat due to be announced at around 3am. It has a majority of just 1,421, which could be overturned by the Lib Dems.

The seats of Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, Defense Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Education Secretary could also change hands if Labor and the Lib Dems have strong nights.

Sir Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader, is defending a slim majority of 1,604 in his north-east London seat of Chingford and Wood Green. Labour’s Shama Tatler and independent Faiza Shaheen are both contesting the seat and could split the left-wing vote.

Former Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North seat is due to be declared around this time. He is no longer a member of the party and is fighting against Labor candidate Praful Nargund, along with five other candidates, to retain a seat he has held since 1983.

Labor could lose Bristol Central, with a new seat being contested by Shadow Cabinet member Thangam Debbonaire to the Greens. The result is displayed around 3.15.

Sir Ed’s home of Kingston and Surbiton in south-west London is also scheduled to declare at around 3.15am. He is defending a majority of over 11,000 for the Lib Dems.

Elsewhere, Ribble Valley in Lancashire, Thanet East in Kent and Scarborough & Whitby in North Yorkshire are all seats Labor must win to be sure of a majority in the next Parliament, and all are due to declare this period.

Meanwhile, Tory-Lib Dem battlegrounds such as Eastleigh in Hampshire, Wells & Mendip Hills in Somerset and Newton Abbot in Devon will also all declare, giving a better picture of how well the Tories fought with the Lib Dem Challenge from the south of England.

4:00 – The overall result of Rishi Sunak’s seat could become clear

The overall result will start to become apparent around this time, with about half of the seats being declared.

Rishi Sunak will learn his parliamentary fate. Its Richmond & Northallerton headquarters in North Yorkshire should declare around this time.

Clacton, the Tory-held seat being contested by UK reform leader Nigel Farage, is due to declare at this time.

And residents of Ashfield in Nottinghamshire will find out at around 4.30am if their next MP is former Tory-turned-reform candidate Lee Anderson, who won the seat (as a Tory) in 2019.

Former Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg will find out if he has won the new seat of Somerset North East & Hanham, where the notional Tory majority is 16,389.

The Greens will find out if they have kept Brighton Pavilion, where Caroline Lucas was the party’s MP from 2010 until this year and where their new candidate is Sian Berry.

5 am – the key seat

He is expected to claim Northampton North, which has been a benchmark for the overall result at every election since 1974. Labor needs a 3.9 point swing to win the constituency from the Tories.

Another key viewpoint – Loughborough, is due to be declared at around 5.30am; Labor needs a 5.9 point swing to win the seat from the Tories.

Former Prime Minister Liz Truss will find out if she has kept her seat in Norfolk South West, where she holds a huge majority of 24,180 people.

Two key Labor London seats – Finchley & Golders Green and Hendon, both held by the Conservatives since 2010 – will also declare this time.

6:00 – the final places are set to be declared

The final places to declare their results should be Ilford North and Ilford South in east London, which are both safe Labor constituencies.

from 7 in the morning

Where places have been delayed overnight, they will be declared later in the day, but there is a good chance that all places will be decided by mid-morning.