In the election spotlight: South Yorkshire’s political landscape

Ahead of tomorrow’s pivotal general election, Samuel Hemsley examines the places to watch on election night.

Samuel Hemsley

Student in Politics and International Relations at the University of Sheffield

South Yorkshire may be one of the most fascinating but little-discussed areas ahead of the next general election. This region has evolved into a more complex political landscape, and the results of the upcoming elections will provide insights into trends that could define not only this election, but future ones as well.

A different kind of battle

The closest race in the county will be between Labor and the Liberal Democrats in Sheffield Hallam. Historically a Lib Dem stronghold from 1997-2017, with Nick Clegg, former party leader and Deputy Prime Minister, MP from 2005-2017, this constituency presents a unique battleground.

As always with the Liberal Democrats, the subject of tuition fees looms large, a legacy of their coalition with the Conservatives. Interestingly, Clegg did not lose his place in the 2015 wave, but was beaten in 2017 by Jared O’Mara, who was subsequently jailed for four years.

A unique demographic

Sheffield Hallam is a constituency of contrasts. It includes the student areas of Endcliffe and Randmoore, home to first year students from the University of Sheffield, and Crookes, popular with second and third year students. The rest of the constituency is relatively wealthy, with average household earnings 17% higher than the national average.

In 2019, Labor MP Olivia Blake won with 34% of the vote, beating the Liberal Democrats by a margin of 712 votes. The Conservatives also increased their share of the vote to 25%. For the Lib Dems and their candidate Shaffaq Mohammed to win this time, they will need to eliminate the Conservative votes. This could be feasible as Tory voters may vote tactically if they think a Keir Starmer government is likely, choosing to support the Lib Dems to prevent a larger Labor majority.

Conservative candidate Isaac Howarth, fresh out of university, may struggle with name recognition compared to Blake or Mohammed, a former MEP. Blake will benefit from tenure and a steady presence, but faces a tougher fight come July’s election date as many Labour-leaning students will not be in Sheffield.

Students will also influence the Sheffield Central constituency, which is home to the majority of students from both Sheffield Hallam and the University of Sheffield. This could be a stronghold for the Green Party, which, while not expected to win, can build on the success of the local council and set the stage for future elections. Sheffield Central mirrors university seats such as Bristol Central, where the Greens are challenging Labour.

Reform in March?

The Tories may have some hope in Penistone and Stocksbridge, which stretch from north-west Sheffield to the Peak District. Rep. Miriam Cates, with a majority of 7,210 votes, faces potential defeat according to the current poll. However, her outspoken views on women’s rights and her role in the New Conservatives may help retain votes against reform and Labour, especially as women’s rights have emerged as a campaign issue for Keir Starmer and Labour.

In Rotherham, the Tories have no chance, with their candidate pulling out just before the deadline, leaving Reform with the opportunity to take the Labor seat. Labor could find itself close to the Workers’ Party, appealing to the city’s significant Asian population with its pro-Palestine stance. The child sexual abuse scandal highlighted by the 2022 Independent Child Sexual Abuse Inquiry remains a pressing issue that could benefit from reform. However, the main challenge of the reform will be their lack of resources on the ground, despite a strong media presence, especially on TikTok. The rationale for the Tories is that they can focus their efforts on re-electing Alexander Stafford in neighboring Rother Valley, where he needs substantial support to maintain his 6,318 vote majority.

In Barnsley, reform also has a chance after coming second in both seats in 2019, just 3,000 votes behind Labour. Given Reform’s vote parity with the Conservatives nationally, they could win both seats if their 2019 vote share holds and Conservative voters switch to them.

South Yorkshire’s third Tory MP Nick Fletcher sees his Don Valley seat redefined as Doncaster East and Isle of Axholme, potentially improving his chances with a notional majority of 10,085. His re-election campaign is focusing on his efforts to reopen Doncaster Airport, with £138m recently approved for the airport.

Final thought

Whatever the outcome, South Yorkshire offers a unique lens through which to observe the dynamics between Labour, Tories, Lib Dems and Reform, hinting at future electoral battlegrounds.

As South Yorkshire’s political landscape continues to evolve, the results of this general election will be pivotal in shaping the region’s future. The complicated interplay of local issues, national party strategies and the diverse preferences of the electorate will make South Yorkshire a critical area to watch this Thursday and Friday night, providing valuable insights into the wider political trends that will shape Britain for years to come. following.

For more on the House’s election analysis, please click here.