The Green Party’s Carla Denyer is forecast to win the Bristol Central by-election

Carla Denyer is tipped to become the first MP for Bristol Central in one of the few expected coups for the Labor Party on its way to a landslide general election victory. The Ipsos UK exit poll predicts the Green Party co-leader to win the newly created seat over Labour’s Thangam Debbonaire.

Labor will win the general election with a majority of 170 seats. Sir Keir Starmer’s party is expected to have 410 MPs tonight, up 209 from the 2019 general election.

The Conservative Party is expected to lose 241 seats, down to 131. This would mean Labor wresting control from the Conservative Party for the first time since the 2010 general election.

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The result of that election saw the Conservatives, under leader David Cameron, enter a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, as the Conservatives failed to win an outright majority.

Bristol Central is largely made up of the old Bristol West constituency with some changes. Bristol West has been held by Labor since 2015, with incumbent MP Thangam Debbonaire running to keep his job and overcome a challenge from Green Party leader Carla Denyer.

Before she was first elected, the seat was held by Liberal Democrat MP Stephen Williams from 2005 to 2015. The Greens have now put a lot of resources into trying to overturn Labour’s huge majority of 28,000, and polls suggest that they might be able. to do it.

Important factors also include the recent local election results which saw the Greens become the largest party on Bristol City Council. However, voters tend to make different decisions in local elections and national elections, so local results do not guarantee another Green victory.

As well as being the first general election since December 2019, it is also the first general election since one of the biggest reshuffles of parliamentary constituencies for decades, following recent major changes to the Boundary Commission.

Changes in constituency boundaries were instigated because of changes in population. In the case of the West of England, the population is growing, which means there were too many people voting in constituencies in and around Bristol.

As a result of these changes, Bristol has seen two new places being created – Bristol Central and Bristol North East. Bristol Central is set to be one of the key seats in the area, with Green Party candidate Carla Denyer hoping to defeat Thangam Debbonaire, formerly MP for Bristol West.

The Greens took effective control of Bristol City Council in May and the party’s national co-leader Carla Denyer is running in what was always expected to be a close contest. Earlier this week, Labor was predicted to win up to ten seats from the Tories in the South West as a whole, and up to six from the Liberal Democrats, in what was touted as a bloodbath for Rishi’s party Sunak.

Another key battleground in the area is the new constituency of North East Somerset and Hanham, where Jacob Rees Mogg for the Tories faces Dan Norris, the incumbent mayor of the west of England metro. Other seats in the area to watch out for include North Somerset – where the Labor Party hopes to defeat Somerset’s longest-serving MP, Dr Liam Fox – and Filton and Bradley Stoke.

It has long been the closest Conservative-held seat in Bristol, and Labor has established itself as the closest challenger since the seat was created in 2010.