Why Bradford City under Graham Alexander are already looking a decent shout for promotion

By Jason McKeown

The question is how far we should go. Do we just choose to remember the last seven games of last season, when Bradford City turned into Barcelona 2008-2012 and swept all before them? Do we add to the nightmare of four previous games – Forest Green, Mansfield, Notts County and Harrogate – in which Bradford City became Derby County 2007/08, looking utterly hopeless? How about just before that, where were they good? Or just before the decent side, where they were pretty terrible?

There is talk and fear surrounding Bradford City’s summer recruitment activity and whether it really turns the dial. That there is no revolution to televise, perhaps because of a false sense of security over how the Bantams ultimately just missed out on a play-off final by a point. Did the end of City’s season prove the patient didn’t need surgery after all, or was it a thin sticky plaster temporarily masking their deficiencies? A summer with largely little transfer activity would suggest that – within the club – much weight has been placed on the final seven games.

With City being so twisted in their form last season, it’s easy to worry that recent bias is influencing decision-making too much. The music stopped with City in fine form, beating Newport County 4-1 in front of the watching Stefan Rupp in a manner that suggested they could destroy a weaker-looking League Two in 2024/25. But this was largely the same group of players who were humiliated by everyone in March. If the music had stopped at that point, a complete tear down and rebuild of this team would have seemed like the only option.

So what is the real record that City have taken from last season to shape this summer’s plot? Well, it seems that the further back we go, the more meaningful the data patterns become.

So it’s only fair to fast-forward at least to Monday 6 November 2023. That was the day the club finally sorted their manager, unveiling Graham Alexander after an arduous 33-day search. That was when Alexander started to take control. He took responsibility for the results. This is where the season begins. This is the real test.

And here the data seems encouraging. Because yes, the Alexander era began bleakly with 1-0 down inside 30 seconds at Barrow, followed by the TV humiliation of Notts County the following week. But it soon got better. It soon got better. Spells with decent results, spells of uncertain form, but an overall upward trajectory. City were 16th when Alexandru took the reins. They finished the season in 9th place.

Alexander’s record, on the whole, is very promising. 31 league games in charge, 52 points. That’s 1.67 points per game, which in a 46-game season would translate to 77 points. Typically, this number would be just before finishing in the auto-promotion spots, but not by much. It’s a total that would usually see you comfortably make the play-offs.

From 6 November 2023 to the end of last season, Alexander and City had the fifth best record in League Two. They were just six points behind the best team in this period, Wrexham (who won 58 points). Five points less than Stockport and Mansfield (57) – who like Wrexham went up. The only team with a better points record than Alexander who did not get promoted was his former club MK Dons (56 points).

There were undoubtedly some bad days at the front office under Alexander last season. The dismal 4-2 defeat at home to Crawley, the 2-0 capitulation to Swindon, the March madness of four defeats and some rather abject draws at home to Salford, Doncaster and Grimsby where the entertainment was painfully short .

But there were also many good days. Six straight wins just before Christmas, victory at Wrexham followed by a 4-0 thrashing of MK Dons three days later in February. Good Friday victory at Tranmere on a day of protests and dramatic wins over Salford, Walsall and Barrow which were almost enough to clinch an unlikely play off.

Overall, Alexander have won 15 of their 31 league games in charge, losing just 9. They have scored 45 goals and conceded 38 – and 10 of those have come during that wretched spell of gloom in March. There was also the memorable cup run which saw City badly beaten in their first ever EFL cup semi-final appearance. Alexander masterminded cup wins over Barnsley, Liverpool U21s, Derby and Doncaster en route to the last four.

Alexander has unlocked improvements, particularly with moves in the January transfer window. Harry Lewis’ departure came as a surprise, but the underlying stats would show it was an inspired decision, especially with replacement Sam Walker proving a revelation. Tyreik Wright was successfully converted to a left winger. Calum Kavanagh settled in brilliantly. A late-season change to the 3-5-2 to leave Richie Smallwood as the sole defensive midfielder brought the best out of several players and the system. Bobby Pointon and Jamie Walker particularly thrived.

A lot of City’s progress under Alexander has almost happened below the surface. Rightfully so, there was a lot of noise about how badly the season was going. City had a lot of catching up to do, which meant that the green shoots of recovery were overshadowed by a disappointing overall league position. Alexander didn’t really have a honeymoon period, the mood music was already dark and took a long time to lighten up.

But when you dig into the data, there’s a lot more to get excited about than a bunch of late-season wins. Alexander currently has a 51% win rate, league and cup. According to the ever-reliable Wikipedia, this is the third best record of any Bradford City manager in history.

All of which provide good reasons why this has not been a summer of transformation. Why have there been only five new arrivals so far, compared to 11 last summer and 18 the summer before. And yes, that can seem a bit boring when the closing days of the season drag on and on with nothing for us backers to sink our teeth into other than getting wrapped up in over-the-top kit releases. But in a league without the same financial imbalances, the building blocks for success appear to be already in place. At least, that’s what the numbers suggest.

Of course, there is still work to be done. Matty Platt leaving is a big loss in my opinion (City won 53% of their games last season when he played and got just one league win without him). It is not clear whether we have adequately replaced the 26-year-old. Especially with loanees Daniel Oyegoke and Jon Tomkinson no longer at the club.

Is Tyreik Wright the answer to LWB? Maybe, but there isn’t enough data on that to conclude. Could be a problem there. We will see. Andy Cook has certainly gotten leaner this season, but he’s not getting any younger. Do we have adequate support for such an often irreplaceable guy? And are there enough goals between Jake Young, Kavanagh and Tyler Smith?

Strength in depth is a concern. Alexandru likes a weaker team, we all know that. But that leaves open the risk of a few injuries jeopardizing their prospects. That March collapse came with a Matty Platt-shaped hole in the back. The loss of Jamie Walker at Christmas left a headache that took weeks to sort out. Last season under Alexandru, the team did not do well when the treatment room was busy.

There are questions as to whether Stefan Rupp’s pledge to invest more this season is proving empty. It’s too early to judge this, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. A signature or two wouldn’t hurt, that’s for sure. Talk of having to move people first doesn’t inspire confidence, however necessary certain player departures seem to be.

Finally, we must caution against assuming that the league will be easy just because there is no longer a Disney Plus documentary crew following one of the owners around. Stockport, Wrexham and Mansfield have had more financial muscle than the teams that are surely surrendering, but other clubs are busy this summer. Money is spent. League Two will not be a walk in the park for anyone.

More City to do then, yes. But this is a Bradford City side in decent form. They need fine-tuning instead of overhaul. You don’t have the fifth best record in League 2 over 30 games without doing something right. If a few more gems can be unearthed, Alexander and City are in a great position to continue the progress they have made since last November.

Categories: Opinion

Labels: BCAFC