Brent tops $86 on hopes of Fed Cut in September

Brent crude rose to $86 a barrel as better-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes of a Fed rate cut in September.

There was a slight downward correction in oil prices earlier this week as anticipated damage from Hurricane Beryl turned out to be less impactful than initially thought, however constructive macroeconomic data reversed this decline. With US consumer prices falling last month for the first time in four years, a September interest rate cut has become a high-probability event for the Fed, lifting ICE Brent back above $86 a barrel.

IEA sees weakness in global demand. The IEA reported the slowest quarterly rise in global demand in over a year as consumption rose by 710,000 b/d in Q2, saying China’s stellar growth is coming to an end and cutting the outlook for 2025 to 970,000 b/d.

Indian state refiners seek Russian forward offers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia this week, accompanied by representatives of the country’s state-controlled refiners who want to sign long-term import deals with Russian exporters, finalizing terms such as the currency of payment.

South Africa tries to save a grounded ship. The Panama-flagged dry bulk tanker Ultra Galaxy, which was carrying ammonium nitrate to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, ran aground off the coast of South Africa, raising risks of a potential oil spill and pollution as salvage operations are hampered by rough sea conditions.

Taking its chances, the US is looking for Q4 SPR volumes. After failing to procure volumes of SPR below $80 a barrel in its last auction, the US Department of Energy is seeking to purchase up to 4.5 million barrels of oil at its Bayou Choctaw site in Louisiana, which to be delivered from October to December.

Saudi Aramco enters the bond market. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222), Saudi Arabia’s national oil company, attracted more than $31 billion in orders for its $6 billion bond sale, its first foray into debt markets in three years, selling 10.30 and 40 dollars. dollar denominated bonds per year.

Rio Tinto’s lithium project is back on track. Australian mining giant Rio Tinto (ASX:RIO) welcomed the Serbian constitutional court’s ruling this week that overturned the government’s 2022 decision to scrap planning permission for Europe’s largest lithium mine, the Jadar project opposed by environmentalists locals.

Related: Suriname’s mega oil boom is back on track

U.S. natural gas demand rises amid heat waves. Power generators in the United States burned a record amount of natural gas on Tuesday, the hottest day of 2024 so far, about 54.2 billion cubic feet per day, surpassing the previous record of 52.8 Bcfd set in July 2023.

More bearish than ever, BP sees peak oil in 2025. Publishing its annual Energy Outlook, British energy major BP (NYSE:BP) announced that it expects oil demand to peak in 2025, already at 102 million b/d, under both the “Current Trajectory” scenario and “Net Zero”, maintaining a bearish outlook on fuel consumption.

The US imposed a record penalty for air pollution. The U.S. Department of Justice fined Marathon Oil (NYSE:MRO) for alleged air pollution violations at the company’s oil and gas facilities on an Indian reservation in North Dakota, with the oil producer agreeing to pay a 241 of millions of dollars.

The Gulf Coast is going through Hurricane Beryl. The US Army Corps of Engineers and the US Coast Guard gave approval for the full reopening of the Port of Houston on Thursday, lifting all draft restrictions, and other Texas ports are set to resume normal operations on July 12.

China tightens rules for solar power producers. China’s industry ministry has issued draft rules for the solar PV industry, seeking to limit the overcapacity problem of last year, requiring a minimum capital of 30 percent for new projects and stipulating minimum efficiency levels.

UK court rejects approval of onshore drilling. The UK Supreme Court overturned a 2023 decision to grant permission for an onshore well in Lincolnshire, a month after it made a similar decision on a future oil well near Gatwick Airport, scrapping the prospects for all projects on dry.

Tank seized by Iran moving again, without cargo. The Marshall Islands-flagged Advantage Sweet, seized by Iran more than a year ago with its cargo of 1 million barrels of Wafra crude seized by Tehran, is heading for international waters after it was released this week.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

More top reads from Oilprice.com