Premier League title swaps: How Arsenal and Manchester City can become champions

The race for the Premier League title will go down to the last day of the season.

Manchester City’s 4-0 win over Fulham on Saturday moved them two points clear of Arsenal, only for the north Londoners to return to the top of the league with a 1-0 win over Manchester United at Old Trafford The next day.

Neither result was surprising, but City’s margin of victory could yet prove significant. After all, there is still the intriguing possibility of the championship being decided on goal difference for only the second time in the Premier League era.

We explain how that scenario might play out – and exactly what each side needs to do to claim the title.

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Arsenal

• Everton (H) – May 19 (4pm BST, 11am ET, 8am PT)

Why should neutrals want Spurs-City to draw?

If City draw their game in hand against Tottenham tonight, Arsenal would lead going into the final day thanks to their better goal difference (61 to City’s 58).

That would set up a shootout on the final day on Sunday, when City host West Ham and Everton travel to Arsenal. Assuming both sides win those games – and neither of their opponents have anything but pride to play for – City should better Arsenal’s three-goal win.

So, for example, if Arsenal beat Everton by one goal, City should win by four. If Arsenal beat Everton by two goals, City should win by five… and so on.

In those scenarios, the two teams’ goal difference would be equal, but City would win the league because they would have scored more goals than Mikel Arteta’s side. City currently have 91 goals to Arsenal’s 89 and the Londoners are unlikely to overcome that deficit and still be ahead of City on goal difference by half-time on Sunday.

Such a close finish would be unprecedented in the Premier League era. In 2012, City and Manchester United finished level on points at the top of the table, but the former’s goal difference was much higher (eight goals).

That scenario would no doubt be unbearable for fans of both clubs – but for broadcasters and neutrals, it would make for compelling viewing.

What other factors decide the title if both teams finish level on points?

There is no scenario where goal difference or goals scored will not decide this year’s title race. However, there are other methods of deciding the league if, in the future, goal difference and goals scored do not settle it.

The next scenario would be the team that won the most points in head-to-head matches

To give the example of this season, Arsenal have the head-to-head advantage over City. They beat City 1-0 at the Emirates Stadium in October before the sides played out a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium in March.

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Arsenal’s 1-0 win against Manchester United was crucial to their title hopes (Stu Forster/Getty Images)

Forget a draw tonight – how else can City win the title?

If City win against Tottenham tonight, the task is relatively simple: they will be two points ahead of Arsenal and will know that it will be enough to equal or better their result on the final day.

If City beat Spurs but then draw with West Ham, and Arsenal win against Everton, then we’re back in goal difference territory again.

City have already faced Tottenham away from home this season, winning 1-0 in the FA Cup fourth round in January (Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)

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And what about Arsenal?

After City’s victory over Fulham on Saturday, Arsenal knew they had to win both games to have any chance of securing their first Premier League title since 2003-04.

They did the first part of the task on Sunday with a 1-0 win over Manchester United thanks to Leandro Trossard’s first-half goal, a result that puts the pressure firmly on City ahead of their game in hand.

But the title is not in their own hands as they need City to drop points somewhere to have a chance.

To recap: if City were to lose against Tottenham, Arsenal would need to equal or better their result on the final day; and should City pick up four points from their last two games, Arsenal would only need to ensure their goal difference remains better than Pep Guardiola’s side.

Although complicated, it is potentially thrilling.

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(Top photo: Justin Setterfield/Getty Images))