Ranking Leicester, Southampton and Ipswich from most to least likely to survive

Having just seen all three promoted sides return straight from the Premier League to the Championship last season, new top boys Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton will be keenly aware that the gap between the top two divisions is a absolute abysmal these days. .

Do they have any chance of staying awake? We watched each of the newly-promoted sides both on TV and in person multiple times last season, and here’s how we rate their chances, from most likely to least likely to survive the drop…but honestly it would refreshing to be wrong in all three .

Leicester City: It’s a toss-up between them and Southampton, so hold your rants Saints fans.

The main factors behind our thinking are that 1) Leicester were simply better than Southampton throughout last season, therefore automatically promoted rather than needing the play-offs; and 2) although they lost manager Enzo Maresca to Chelsea, they appointed a manager with equally expansive ideas in Russell Martin, but who also has the experience of making the necessary compromises to keep a newly-promoted team in Premier League.

Yes, they have to replace some of the key players they lost to relegation, as well as influential midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who also left for Stamford Bridge; but they were also less reliant on loan players to win promotion than Southampton.

We daresay Steve Cooper will have a firmer say on the recruitment he wants at the King Power Stadium than he had to endure at scattergun Nottingham Forest, and should have the clearest idea of ​​the three managers why mistakes the club needs. avoid.

Crucially, Leicester had the best defensive record in the Championship last season, conceding less than two-thirds of the goals against a somewhat more drained Southampton side.

That doesn’t always translate to the Premier League, as we know from recent experience, but it’s as much evidence as we have to go on that Leicester could be best placed of the three to stay up.

However, we are not foolish enough to fall for Leicester like we did for Burnley.

Southampton: We really, really like Russell Martin and we really like his football but… they conceded a lot of goals last season and for long stretches of the campaign they relied on late goals to get the job done .

That worries us for them in the Premier League, where fitness levels are much higher and opportunities to grind down the opposition Rocky Balboa-style are far more limited. We’re also not sure how far Martin is willing to compromise his style to suit the different demands of the Premier League.

And actually, as Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds showed in his first season in the Premier League, that might not be a bad thing: despite placing them behind Leicester here, if we had to bet any of the three to pull off a surprise finish in the first half of the year. , that would be Southampton, not Leicester.

But it could all too easily go the way of Burnley’s Vincent Kompany if Southampton are not careful. Dropping out of the automatic promotion race should be a warning sign to them that their ‘we score two, we’ll score three’ style, while plenty of fun to watch in the Championship, can quickly turn into ‘we score one, you “I’ll score four” in the Premier League.

Town of Ipswich: Again, we hasten to express our admiration for Ipswich for the incredible and rare feat of achieving back-to-back promotions.

For those who haven’t followed the Championship closely, Ipswich’s promotion was no fluke. There’s always a team that starts well and then drops out, or occasionally a side on paper that catches a massive wave of momentum that carries them to the finish line.

Not so with Ipswich. Their core numbers were excellent early on, up there in Leicester and Burnley territory, and they were able to stay up there to help turn a three-horse race for second into a three-horse race for first, after Leicester suffered a spring stumble. inform.

Our main problem? Ipswich picked up so many points from drop positions last season – 32 out of 96 in total – which speaks volumes for the character of the squad and manager Kieran McKenna’s ability to make decisive changes.

But that positive could quickly turn negative. As well as Southampton leaving things late – a habit Ipswich share, but more so – most Premier League teams are far less forgiving once they’ve taken the lead… or if their opposition aren’t settled right from the start, which Ipswich’s record suggests they may not do. were.

They spent a lot of money, mind.