Colombia’s Q2 economic growth was 2.2% y-o-y: Reuters poll by Reuters

By Nelson Bocanegra

BOGOTA (Reuters) – Colombia’s economy is expected to have grown 2.2 percent in the second quarter of 2024 from the same period last year, accelerating from the first three months, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

If the median estimate from 10 analysts holds, this would represent a significant acceleration from Colombia’s annual GDP growth of 0.1% in the second quarter of 2023 and 0.7% in the first quarter of 2024 .It would also be higher than that of the central bank. forecast of 1.8% for the three months to the end of June.

Analysts’ estimates ranged from 1.10% to 3%.

“Overall, the economy seems to have bottomed out and we’re having a very gradual recovery,” said Sergio Olarte, chief economist for Colombia at Scotiabank, adding that the performance of the agricultural sector and increased government spending may have contributed to the increase.

The government statistics agency DANE will publish second quarter GDP data on August 15.

“However, we don’t think this second-quarter data will continue to be seen for the rest of the year,” Olarte warned, citing “defensive” household spending and erratic investment.

Colombia’s economic growth has been hurt by a high benchmark interest rate, currently at 10.75%, as well as stubborn inflation, which stood at 7.18% for the 12 months to the end of June, with well above the central bank’s 3% target.

The economy was forecast to expand by 0.81% in the second quarter of 2024 from the first.

Analysts now see Latin America’s fourth-largest economy growing 1.5 percent this year, up from 1.3 percent in the previous survey. For 2025, analysts continue to see GDP growth of 2.6%.