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It is rising but remains below 147.50

  • USD/JPY is trading at 147.28, up 0.38%, still unable to break the 147.89 resistance.
  • Bearish bias persists despite recovery from below 144.00 on dovish BoJ comments.
  • A break above 148.00 targets 148.45 and 149.00; below 147.00 sees support at 145.44 and 144.28.

USD/JPY rises for third consecutive session. However, it is holding at familiar levels, unable to decisively break the August 7 daily high of 147.89 after strong US jobs data boosted the greenback. At the time of writing, the pair is trading at 147.28, up 0.38%

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Insights

USD/JPY is bullish despite a rally that saw the pair rise from below 144.00 at the current exchange rate following dovish comments from a Bank of Japan deputy governor.

Momentum remains bearish, even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has broken out of oversold territory, but its slope remains flat, suggesting USD/JPY consolidation.

If the pair rises above 148.00, the next resistance will be the Tenkan-Sen at 148.45. Prices could follow an upward trajectory if it rises above 149.00, challenging the psychological figure of 150.00.

Conversely, and the path of least resistance, if USD/JPY breaks below 147.00, the next support would be the August 8 low of 145.44, followed by the August 7 low of 144.28. Once these levels are broken, the next support would be the August 6 daily low at 143.61, followed by the most recent cycle low of 141.69.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to combat decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during periods of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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