More people moving from counties with high disaster risk

Despite the dangers and expense associated with living in high-risk areas, large numbers of people continue to move to the parts of America most affected by wildfires, floods and extreme heat.

According to a new report from real estate company Redfin, high-risk counties in states like Texas and Florida are seeing an influx of residents even as hazards like fires and floods become more frequent and intense.

In 2023, 63,365 more people moved into US counties at high fire risk than out of it. Much of this net flow came from people moving to Texas. The nation’s high flood-risk counties saw 16,144 more people displaced than outside, largely due to people moving to Florida.

“Ballooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of at-risk areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by other people for whom climate change is not a top concern,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa.

Redfin defines a high-risk county as one that is in the top 10 percent in terms of the share of homes that face high risk of fire or flooding.

“For many Americans, things like the cost of living and being close to family take precedence over the risk of catastrophe, which can be less immediate and more abstract,” de la Campa added. “But the cost-benefit calculus appears to be changing in places like California and Florida, where skyrocketing home insurance costs and an increase in high-profile disasters have had a tangible impact on residents and made national news.”

Moving in

Migration to fire-prone Texas fueled more than a third of the national net flow to high-fire-risk areas last year. The state is home to five of the 10 high fire risk counties with the highest net inflows of people. A total of 97,535 people moved to US counties with high fire risk, and 35,175 (36.1%) were people who moved to Texas, up from 28.7% in 2022. In total, high fire risk counties in Texas recorded a network. influx of 30,156.

Texas had more wildfires last year (7,102) than any state except California (7,364) and has the most wildfires in 2022.

Migration to flood-prone Florida fueled a sizable portion of the national net flow to areas at high flood risk last year. While 219,799 people moved to US counties at high risk of flooding, more than half – 117,574 (53.7%) – were people who moved to Florida. In total, Florida’s high flood risk counties saw a net runoff of 68,564 — contributing significantly to the national net runoff. (The national net inflow is less than the Florida net inflow because Florida’s net outflow was partially offset by outflows from other areas.) That number is down from 57.3% in 2022. This could be because the fact that people are becoming more aware of the risk of flooding and the increase in insurance costs. Florida is home to six of the 10 counties at high risk of flooding that saw the largest net inflows of people last year. All six are located on the Florida coast.

In contrast, US counties with low fire risk saw a net outflow of 38,401 people in 2023, and counties with low flood risk saw a net outflow of 6,892.

Moving out

California is experiencing statewide effects. The state has five of the 10 high-fire-risk counties with the largest net outflows in 2023. A total of 34,170 people left America’s high-fire-risk counties last year, 17,357 of those people — or 50.8 percent — leaving California, up from 41.9% in 2022. California’s high fire risk areas saw a net outflow of 6,937 people in 2023. This marks a reversal from 2022, when high fire risk counties had recorded a slight net flow (+763).

In Texas and Florida, big cities buck the states’ migratory trends. While some of the migration from city centers can be attributed to factors such as rising housing costs or the shift to remote work, there are also climate migrants – people leaving because of climate risk.

While five high flood risk counties surrounding Houston had net inflows of more than 2,000 people in 2023, Harris County, a high flood risk area that includes Houston proper, saw a net outflow of 22,792 people last year. Nearly one-third (31.4%) of Harris County homes are at high risk for flooding and 100% are at high risk for heat.

In Miami and Miami-Dade County, where 38.9 percent of homes face a high risk of flooding, there was a net outflow of 47,597 people in 2023, a larger outflow than almost any other county in the country.

About 1 in 11 (8.8%) people who plan to move soon cited concern about natural disasters or climate risks, according to a Qualtrics survey of about 3,000 U.S. homeowners and renters commissioned by Redfin in February 2024. However, other answers were much more common, such as wanting more space (32.4%), lower cost of living (26.4%) or being closer to family (16, 4%).

Home insurance costs

“Prospective homebuyers are asking me a lot more questions about natural disasters and insurance costs than they used to. About three-quarters of the sellers I speak with express frustration with recent increases in their insurance premiums,” said Rafael Corrales, Redfin Premier Agent in Miami.

Many homeowners in Florida and California saw their premiums rise dramatically and some lost coverage as insurers stopped doing business in the two states.

Allstate, California’s sixth-largest insurer, is trying to raise homeowners insurance costs by an average of 34 percent, Redfin said. That would affect more than 350,000 people and exceed the 30 percent increase sought last month by State Farm, the state’s largest insurer. Allstate stopped writing new policies for California homeowners in 2022.

“If you’re looking to buy a home in Florida, you should know that you can’t be near water without being in a flood zone,” Corrales said. “If you’re within three miles of the coast, Mother Nature is going to pay you a visit. This is the price you pay to live in paradise.”

Photo: A man stops to photograph his flooded neighborhood in Dania Beach, Florida, on April 12, 2023. (Carline Jean/South Florida Sun-Sentinel via AP)

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Catastrophe