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XAG/USD flat lines around mid $27.00, bears have the upper hand

  • Silver is struggling to capitalize on a modest intraday rally to the 23.6% Fibo. level.
  • The technical setup favors the bears and supports the outlook for further losses.
  • Any significant rally could struggle to get back above the 100-day SMA.

Silver (XAG/USD) is struggling to take advantage of the previous day’s good rebound from the $26.45 area, or the lowest level since early May, and is swinging between warm gains/minor losses until the start of the European session on Friday. The white metal now appears to have stabilized around the $27.50-$27.55 region and remains below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the July-August decline.

The said barrier is fixed near the $27.75 region, which if cleared could trigger a short-covering rally and lift XAG/USD to the $28.00 level. The recovery momentum could extend further towards the 38.2% Fibo. level around the $28.50-$28.55 region, although it is more likely to remain capped near the breakout point of the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) near the $28.75-28 area, $80. However, some further buying leading to further strength beyond the $29.00 mark could negate any short-term downside bias and pave the way for further gains.

XAG/USD could then rally to the intermediate hurdle of $29.45 en route to the 61.8% Fibo. level, around the $29.75 region and eventually aim to recover the psychological $30.00 mark. That said, the technical indicators on the daily chart – while recovering from lower levels – are still deep in negative territory. This, in turn, calls for some caution for bullish traders and positioning for a new intraday appreciation move.

Meanwhile, any significant slide now looks to find some support near the $27.30-$27.25 area ahead of the $27.00 mark. A convincing break below has the potential to pull XAG/USD back towards the $26.50-$26.45 area or a multi-month low set on Wednesday. The latter should act as a pivotal point which, if broken, will be seen as a new trigger for bearish traders and make the white metal vulnerable to testing the May monthly swing around $26.00 . The commodity could fall further to the horizontal support of $25.60 and the psychological mark of $25.00.

Silver daily chart

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Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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