Oil markets on edge as Israel braces for Iranian retaliation

Wall Street is more jittery this week than last week, with benchmark US oil prices up 3.5% at one point on Wednesday as Israel (and everyone else in the region and beyond) awaits a response from Iran in revenge for the assassination. of Haniyeh Hamas on Iranian territory, which Israel has not yet recognized.

Israel maintains its internal defense for war. The panic began. Flights over Iranian and Lebanese airspace are being avoided amid growing fears of a regional military conflict. United Airlines suspended flights to Tel Aviv on Thursday. Canada is evacuating all the children of its diplomats. Iran itself warned airlines not to use its airspace for three hours on Thursday as it launched military exercises.

And peace talks are now even more elusive, with Hamas moving to replace Haniyeh with wanted militant Yahya Sinwar as the new political leader. This means that the militant and political wings of Hamas are now irreparably united. Ceasefire negotiations will now be much more complicated, and Sinwar is expected to resist giving way to the negotiations. Hamas has just officially become more extreme, and according to Arab media, Sinwar was the mastermind behind the October 7 attacks and has been hiding in the tunnels of Gaza ever since.

So far, there has been no movement by Iran except through its proxies, including an attack on Wednesday by Iran-backed Syrian military forces against Kurdish militias in eastern Syria — an oil-producing area more or less under the protection of US forces . . Earlier this week, at least five US servicemen were injured in an attack on a military base in Iraq.

An attack on Israel or Israeli allies could come from many corners of the region, including Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy, which could retaliate on behalf of Tehran or even without Iran’s blessing if it felt Tehran was dragging its feet. on an appropriate answer. The US, Egypt and Qatar are pushing for peace talks to resume on August 15, but Sinwar (location still unknown) told The National on Thursday that Hamas would not be compromised. Sinwar also said Hamas would under no circumstances agree to any post-war deal that resulted in the Palestinian Authority taking control of Gaza. The shift in position after vows of unity between Hamas and Fatah just before Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran will soon begin to raise questions about who orchestrated the assassination, given that the Israelis have yet to claim responsibility.

Late Thursday, Syrian state media reported an Israeli airstrike in central Syria that injured four Syrian soldiers. Israel also stepped up airstrikes in Gaza on Thursday, killing 40 people.