What a Harris win means for Taiwan

Taiwan is unlikely to be a major factor in the upcoming US presidential election. Domestic concerns will play a much larger role in choosing the next president. However, whichever candidate the American people choose will deal with several ongoing geopolitical flashpoints. China’s military is strengthening, and experts fear that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could take Taiwan by force by 2027. This article will examine how a Harris presidency would handle this potential crisis.

Why this matters

China’s position on Taiwan is quite simple: it is a breakaway province that must be reunited with the mainland. While peaceful political assembly is the preferred option, brute force is certainly on the table. The United States manages a delicate balancing act between condoning Beijing’s “One China” policy while protecting Taiwan’s de facto independence. Strategic ambiguity has guided American policy for decades, but it may have outlived its usefulness. The next president of the United States may need to answer the Taiwan question definitively.

The historical context

The Chinese Civil War began in the 1920s, but paused for World War II. After the expulsion of the Japanese, the war between the Communists and the Nationalists resumed in 1945. Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists lost and fled to Taiwan. Most of the world saw Chiang’s authoritarian regime, the Republic of China, as the “real China.” The United States has pledged to protect the Republic of China and has refused to recognize the People’s Republic of China for decades.

In 1971The UN switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing, and relations between Beijing and Washington warmed significantly. The United States accepted “One China” in 1972 and finally recognized the People’s Republic of China in 1979. However, the US did not abandon Taiwan entirely. The Taiwan Relations Act – still a cornerstone of American policy today – passed at the same time as the shift in recognition to Beijing. The act outlines American policy toward Taiwan’s security:

… The United States shall make available to Taiwan defense articles and defense services in the amount necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability, as determined by the President and Congress.

It is unclear whether the United States would come to Taiwan’s aid if China invaded, but there is precedent for US presidents helping Taiwan. In 1996, the Clinton administration sent a carrier group to the Taiwan Strait as a show of force in response to Beijing’s weapons tests. The opaque position of the United States on the China-Taiwan issue is deliberate. Strategic ambiguity has been the American position for decades. However, Chinese military buildup may require a more assertive stance.

Harris and Taiwan

Kamala Harris drew the ire of Beijing when he met his Taiwanese counterpart Lai Ching-te in Honduras in 2022. Honduras was one of the few nations with formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Honduras has since severed ties with Taiwan at China’s urging. The meeting between the vice presidents was brief and otherwise unremarkable. Lai has since become President of Taiwan so harris has a personal connection if she becomes president too.

Harris has shown an increased interest in strengthening American ties Southeast Asia as part of the Biden administration. Joe Biden’s Taiwan policy is conventional and follows decades of precedent. In interviews, he is opposed independence for Taiwan while at the same time pledging to oppose any attempt to force a change in the status quo. In line with the strategic ambiguity, Biden suggests that the US will help Taiwan while without giving specific details.

A Harris win in November would likely mean more of the same. There may be more focus on Southeast Asia in the future, but there should be no major departure from strategic ambiguity.

Political considerations

Down-ballot races are almost as important to shaping Taiwan’s future as who wins the White House. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, while Democrats have a tenuous hold on the Senate. This is quite likely to reverse in November 2024. Democrats generally overperformed in the 2022 midterms, though not in New York. Empire State redistricting and better turnout could flip a few seats. The 22nd District is now one of the most vulnerable Republican seats in the House. In addition, Alabama’s newly created second majority – second black district will almost certainly go to the Democrats.

If the House looks promising for Democrats, keeping control of the Senate is a difficult issue. West Virginia is a certainty to go Republican after Joe Manchin retires and Arizona, Michigan, Montana, Nevada and Ohio are all winnable from a Republican perspective. Joe Biden won the trifecta in 2020 but struggled to pass key bills. Kamala Harris faces a potentially hostile Senate that will make it difficult to pass any bill. At least domestically. Fortunately for Harris, support for Taiwan is still a fairly mainstream position in American politics.

Michael McCaul, a Republican, is the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He led a bipartisan delegation to Taipei in May 2024 and reaffirmed America’s commitment to Taiwan:

Taiwan is a thriving democracy. The US will continue to stand by our steadfast partner and work to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait.

Similar Republican sentiments are found in the Senate, as Mitch McConnell noted in February 2024:

We did not equip the brave people of Ukraine, Israel or Taiwan with lethal capabilities to win philanthropic awards. We are not urgently strengthening defenses in the Indo-Pacific because it feels good. We do not use American force frivolously. We do it because it’s in our best interest. We equip our friends to face our common adversaries so that we are less likely to have to spend American lives to defeat them.

So while domestic priorities will be a tough proposition, there is room for maneuver with foreign policy goals. Harris’ choice of running mate, Tim Walz, could help with the operations and negotiations needed to get something through Congress. In his six terms in the House, he was one of the most bipartisan representatives and dealt with a divided legislature as governor of Minnesota in his first term.

Porcupine strategy and deterrence

Taiwan has a modern and well-equipped military and a deep pool of trained reservists to call upon. It also enjoys some key geographic advantages, as Taiwan is a natural fortress with only a few viable landing sites. Even with huge advantages in manpower, ammunition, and equipment, taking Taiwan is still a daunting task for the PLA.

Taiwan’s defensive doctrine is sometimes called the “porcupine strategy”. As the name suggests, it is a defensive stance that uses many “feathers”, multiple layers of high-tech and low-tech weaponry, to inflict great harm on an aggressor. The key idea is to buy enough time for American help to arrive. The perspective is to find ways to negate the firepower disparity with Beijing.

For the United States, any armed confrontation with China would be a catastrophe that could trigger a global economic crisis. China’s investment in anti-access and air denial (A2/AD) ammunition. The so-called “bearer killerthe missiles could keep the US Navy at bay and limit American options for intervention. Deterrence remains the most viable option

Conclusion

A Harris presidency will not lead to any significant revision of US policy in the Indo-Pacific region. As vice president, she stayed on message for the Biden administration’s conventional approach to Taiwan. As long as it is viable, it will continue to pursue the policy of strategic ambiguity. The limitations of this approach may become apparent when the PLA has the means to invade Taiwan. Policy revisions carry great risk. A formal alliance with Taiwan would have serious economic and diplomatic consequences. A more conciliatory approach by Beijing would also risk emboldening Xi Jinping. A de facto independent Taiwan is vital to American interests in the Pacific because it contains Chinese expansion.

If the 2027 timeline is realized, Kamala Harris may have to find a definitive solution to a nearly 80-year-old question that her predecessors have avoided answering.

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