NOAA says very active hurricane season could continue in Atlantic

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has already predicted an extremely active hurricane season, now says it could rank among the busiest on record.

In a midseason hurricane outlook update, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center meteorologists updated the number of expected named storms to 17 to 24 (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which eight to 13 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater). ), including four to seven major hurricanes (winds of 111 mph or greater).

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In the Atlantic basin, a typical season will produce 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three becoming major hurricanes, according to NOAA.

The updated outlook is similar to the original one issued in May, but includes totals for the entire six-month hurricane season, including the four named storms — two tropical storms and two hurricanes — to date.

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Tropical Storm Alberto formed on June 17 and brought nearly a foot of rain to parts of Texas and New Mexico, triggering flooding emergencies. On July 1, Hurricane Beryl became the earliest Category 5 storm on record in the Atlantic basin.

Hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

“The hurricane season got off to an early and violent start with Hurricane Beryl, the oldest Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.

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Atmospheric and oceanic conditions continue to support an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. The administration forecasts a 90 percent chance of an above-normal season, a 10 percent chance of a near-normal season, and a negligible chance of a below-normal season .

NOAA says the Atlantic Ocean basin is expected to be active due to factors such as:

• Warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
• Reduced vertical wind shear.
• Weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds.
• An intensified West African monsoon.

The Atlantic basin is in a continuing warm phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, which reappeared in 1995 and has since favored more active hurricane seasons. Another factor this year is the possibility of La Niña developing in the coming months, which may further weaken wind shear over the Atlantic basin, allowing storms to develop and intensify, according to NOAA.