Harris leads Trump in must-win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin

Harris, however, is now in a much stronger position in the trio of must-win states. In Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Harris now leads Trump by four points each (50% to 46%) among likely voters.

In the latest poll, Harris showed strong results among the groups he will need to win over to defeat Trump in the November general election.

In the three states, Harris held a 20-point lead over Trump (58% to 38%) among women and a 15-point lead among 18- to 29-year-old voters (56% to 41 %). Harris led among suburban voters by a 10-point margin (53% to 43%) and even retained much of Biden’s strength with seniors, leading among the latter group by 13 points (55% to 42%) in the three states.

The latest poll is significant because both Harris and Trump’s campaign strategies are rooted in wooing voters in these battleground states.

Pennsylvania is the group’s top electoral prize with 19 electoral votes. Many Democrats wanted Harris to name the state’s popular governor, Josh Shapiro, as his running mate. But earlier this week, she opted for Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, a former congressman who for 12 years represented a conservative-leaning district but compiled a progressive record as the state’s governor.

Democrats believe Walz will still be an asset to Harris in Pennsylvania, but are also adding support in the Midwest battlegrounds of Michigan (15 electoral votes) and Wisconsin (10 electoral votes).

For Trump, the July selection of Ohio Republican Sen. JD Vance as his running mate was supposed to be a nod to his conservative base in a contest that, at the time, was swinging increasingly in favor of his.

But Harris’ entry into the presidential race completely reset the dynamic. Vance has so far struggled to woo suburban voters who were once on the fence but now seem to see a viable alternative in the vice president.

Harris is poised to enter the Democratic National Convention on August 19 as a slight favorite in many of the closest swing states. Should Harris get an additional boost in the polls after the convention, it would certainly put even more pressure on Trump to refocus his campaign ahead of the Sept. 10 debate between the two candidates.