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He gets up but fights out at 148.00

  • USD/JPY briefly breaks above 148.00 before reversing, with RSI suggesting seller dominance.
  • A drop below 146.27 could trigger further losses, targeting 145.44 and 144.28.
  • If USD/JPY recovers 147.79, resistance levels are at 148.00 and potentially 149.77, with the 200-DMA at 151.46 as a longer-term target.

Japanese yen fails to gain late North American session traction against greenback as USD/JPY rises from last Friday’s daily low of 146.62 to trade at 147.28, up 0.47% .

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical Insights

USD/JPY is bearish despite a rally that saw the pair break above the 148.00 mark and hit a six-day high at 148.22 before reversing course and falling below the Tenkan-Sen at 147.79.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, suggesting that momentum favors sellers.

USD/JPY could extend its losses if the pair declines beyond the August 9 low of 146.27. Once released, the next area of ​​demand will be the August 8 low of 145.44, followed by the August 7 low at 144.28. Next will be the last cycle low at 141.69.

Conversely, if USD/JPY clears the Tenkan-Sen at 147.79, it will clear the way to the August 12 tops of 148.00. Next, the pair could rise towards the Sekou Span A at 149.77 before testing the 200-day moving average (DMA) at 151.46.

USD/JPY Price Action – Daily Chart

Frequently Asked Questions about the Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the most traded currencies in the world. Its value is largely determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by Bank of Japan policy, the difference between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the yen. The BoJ has intervened directly in currency markets on occasion, generally to depress the yen, although it refrains from doing so because of the political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ’s current ultra-loose monetary policy, based on massive stimulus to the economy, has caused the yen to depreciate against its major peers. This process has been exacerbated more recently by a widening policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks, which have opted to raise interest rates sharply to combat decades-high levels of inflation.

The BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to increased policy divergence with other central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. This supports a widening of the spread between US and Japanese 10-year bonds, which favors the US dollar against the Japanese yen.

The Japanese yen is often seen as a safe investment. This means that during times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money into the Japanese currency due to its perceived reliability and stability. Troubled times are likely to strengthen the value of the yen against other currencies considered riskier to invest in.

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