Harris fires back at border security. Trump may not be ready.

It’s also a startling development in the state where former President Donald Trump believes the immigration issue will not only rally his base but win over independents who have disapproved of President Joe Biden’s policies on the US-Mexico border.

For Harris, Biden’s decision to withdraw as the Democratic nominee allows him to address the issue on his own terms, independent of the president.

And it’s a move that could give Harris a critical boost in a state Trump is counting on to win back the White House.

Here’s a look at how Harris went on the offensive on border security and the dilemma Trump faces to win Arizona in November:

Getting ahead of the attacks

Immigration is a top issue for voters this fall, and it’s not just one that animates Republican voters. Over the past two years, voters in pro-democracy cities like New York and Chicago have seen an influx of migrants sent to their jurisdictions by GOP Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who has long railed against the Biden administration’s border policies. south. It has created huge divisions even among residents of some of America’s most liberal cities.

Early in Biden’s tenure, record highs on the southern border made immigration one of his weakest issues. When Biden took office, he pledged to promote a more humane approach to asylum seekers, but when Trump launched his 2024 bid, the president’s vulnerability on the issue was a major part of his pitch to voters .

The rise of Harris as a presidential candidate upsets this long-standing dynamic.

The former California attorney general is already running ads portraying himself as a “border state prosecutor” who has gone after drug cartels and put gang members in prison. And it focuses on her commitment to combating human trafficking and fentanyl smuggling in the US.

Another Harris announcement underscores the vice president’s support for adding additional border patrol agents to the southern border.

One critical thing that’s helping Harris right now: Border crossings have dropped in recent months.

In July, about 57,000 migrants were apprehended at the southern border, the lowest monthly figure of Biden’s tenure in the White House. That’s a sharp drop from the 250,000 arrests in December 2023.

Trump’s campaign has repeatedly criticized Harris on the issue and tried to tie her to Biden. Republicans frequently refer to the vice president as a “border czar” who failed to secure the border.

But it’s unclear whether that message will resonate.

Harris was not officially designated by Biden as “czar” nor was she assigned the task of fully overseeing the southern border. However, she was tasked with addressing the root causes of Central American migration.

Trump can’t take Arizona for granted

Before Biden won Arizona in 2020, he last voted for a Democratic presidential candidate in 1996.

Since 1952, these have been the only two times the state has voted blue at the presidential level, a reflection of its deep Republican roots.

Now, that conservative leaning is no longer the default position.

Democrat Mark Kelly and independent Kyrsten Sinema hold the seats in the United States Senate. After years of GOP control, Democrat Katie Hobbs fought her way back into the governor’s office in the 2022 midterms. And while Arizona’s legislature remains Republican-controlled, the party has slim majorities in both the state House and state Senate .

Just two months ago, it appeared that Trump was on course to win Arizona and potentially flip Nevada — a Democratic state that last supported a Republican presidential candidate in 2004. And his strong focus on border security has been a large part of its resonance. with his base and some voters who have become disillusioned with Biden on immigration and the economy.

But the Cook Political Report recently moved both Arizona and Nevada (as well as Georgia) from the “lean Republican” category back to the “tossup” column.

The move comes from the strength of Harris’ campaign, as she has not only built support from the Democratic base, but made inroads with independents and undecided voters.

As of July, registered independents — or voters classified as “other” — make up nearly 34 percent of the Arizona electorate. Republicans make up 35% of the electorate, while Democrats have a share of 29%.

While Trump has enduring appeal to the Republican base, he cannot win on those votes alone.

Harris’ campaign has already begun attacking Trump over his opposition to a bipartisan border security bill that was backed by Biden but largely abandoned by Republicans after the former president warned the GOP lawmakers to oppose the measure.

Trump’s position has the potential to move independents who want an immigration fix, and I think Harris could take different approaches than Biden on the issue.

For Harris, staying competitive in Arizona gives him more ways to win in the fall. She’s clearly looking at the state’s 11 electoral votes, but she can win the election without them.

However, for Trump, a Harris victory in Arizona would be a huge blow to his attempts to win a second term. Biden’s 2020 victories in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — as well as his victories in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — effectively cut off Trump’s path to victory that year.

Should Harris neutralize the issue of border security — a feat that seemed unimaginable when Biden was still the presumptive nominee — it will give him a major opening to win Arizona.