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WTI slips below $78.00 as Middle East tensions rise to cap deeper losses

  • WTI is moving away from a three-week high reached, although the bias appears tilted in favor of bulls.
  • Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could tighten access to global supplies and provide support.
  • Dovish Fed expectations continue to undermine the USD and should help limit losses.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US crude oil prices fell during the Asian session on Tuesday and for now appear to have snapped a four-day winning streak to a three-week high around the 78.75-78.80 area dollars reached the previous day. The commodity is currently trading just below the $78.00 mark, down nearly 0.50% on the day, although any significant downside appears elusive following rising tensions in the Middle East.

Israeli forces continued operations near the southern Gaza town of Khan Younis on Monday and are bracing for some sort of retaliatory strikes by Iran and its allies amid the risk of a wider conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, subsequent Israeli response could lead to full-scale war in the key oil-producing region and disrupt global crude supplies. This, in turn, should continue to act as a tailwind for the black liquid and help limit losses.

In addition, market players appear confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin its rate-cutting cycle in September, which is expected to boost economic activity and boost fuel demand. Apart from this, subdued US dollar (USD) price action could prove to be another factor supporting USD-denominated commodities. USD bears, however, appear reluctant ahead of the release of crucial US inflation figures on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Tuesday’s decline could be attributed to some technical selling following the overnight failure near the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance. However, the supportive fundamental backdrop supports the prospects for an extension of the recent good recovery move from the $71.20-$71.15 region or a multi-month low reached last week. Therefore, any significant decline could still be seen as a buying opportunity.

Frequently asked questions about WTI oil

WTI Oil is a type of crude oil sold on international markets. WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types, including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” due to its relatively low gravity and sulfur content, respectively. It is considered a high quality oil that is easy to refine. It originates in the United States and is distributed through the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a reference point for the oil market and the price of WTI is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of the WTI oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars and sanctions can disrupt supply and affect prices. Decisions by OPEC, a group of major oil-producing countries, is another key price driver. The value of the US dollar influences the price of WTI crude oil because oil is predominantly traded in US dollars, so a weaker US dollar can make oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) influence the price of WTI oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuations in supply and demand. If the data shows a decline in inventories, it may indicate an increase in demand, leading to higher oil prices. Higher inventories may reflect increased supply, pushing prices lower. The API report is published every Tuesday and the EIA the following day. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. EIM data is considered more reliable because it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 oil-producing nations that collectively decide production quotas for member countries when they meet twice a year. Their decisions often affect WTI oil prices. When OPEC decides to cut quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten additional non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

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