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GBP/JPY advances towards 189.50 following positive key economic figures from the UK

  • GBP/JPY extends winning streak after UK economic data release.
  • UK Gross Domestic Product expanded 0.6% QoQ in Q2, as expected, up from a 0.7% rise in Q1.
  • The upside of the pair could be limited as the JPY receives support from a mood of sorts surrounding the BoJ.

GBP/JPY continues to gain ground for the fourth straight session, trading around 189.30 in early European hours on Thursday. The positive side of the GBP/JPY cross could be attributed to positive key economic data, including Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data from the United Kingdom (UK).

The British economy expanded by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, in line with expectations. There was an increase of 0.7% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, GDP rose 0.9% y-o-y in Q2 versus an expected 0.9% and 0.3% booked in Q1. GDP rose 0% month-on-month in June, as expected, compared to a 0.4% increase reported in May.

On the manufacturing side, UK industrial production rose 0.8% month-on-month in June, comfortably beating market forecasts for a 0.1% increase and accelerating from a 0.3% rise in the previous month. Meanwhile, manufacturing output rose 1.1% month-on-month, beating expectations for a 0.1% rise. This marked the strongest expansion since February.

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves has set an official target for Britain to achieve the fastest per capita GDP growth among advanced Group of Seven (G7) economies for two consecutive years. However, Thursday’s figures showed that output per capita in the second quarter was 0.1 percent lower than a year earlier and 0.8 percent below pre-pandemic levels.

Minister Reeves stressed that the latest data underscores the challenges facing the new government and reiterated his position that tough decisions will be needed to improve economic fundamentals, according to Reuters.

The upside of the GBP/JPY cross may be limited as the Japanese yen (JPY) receives support as Japan’s GDP growth beat expectations in the second quarter. This supports the case for a potential short-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Japan’s Economy Minister Yoshitaka Shindo said he expected the economy to recover gradually as wages and incomes improved. He also noted that the government will work closely with the Bank of Japan to implement flexible macroeconomic policies.

FAQs about GDP

A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the growth rate of its economy over a specific period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP with the previous quarter, for example Q2 2023 vs Q1 2023, or with the same period of the previous year, for example Q2 2023 vs Q2 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. They can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks affect growth in one quarter, but are unlikely to last the whole year – as happened in the first quarter of 2020 when the covid pandemic broke out, when growth fell.

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency because it reflects a growing economy that is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attract greater foreign investment. Likewise, when GDP falls, it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows, people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank must then raise interest rates to combat inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thereby helping the local currency to appreciate.

When an economy grows and GDP increases, people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank must then create interest rates to combat inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding gold compared to putting money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for the price of gold.

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