Barclays presents possible scenarios and impacts by Investing.com

As Google faces a crucial antitrust ruling from the US Department of Justice (DoJ), Barclays analysts analyzed the potential scenarios and their impact.

According to Barclays, the outcome of this legal battle could significantly reshape the landscape for Google and its parent company, Alphabet (NASDAQ: ), with effects that could be felt as far back as 2026.

Barclays points out that the court’s decision is “all that matters” in this situation, urging investors to focus on the legal ramifications rather than what they think is “right”.

Analysts outline a range of possible outcomes, with potential remedies varying widely in their impact on Alphabet’s gross profit.

One of the worst scenarios involves structural changes, such as divesting key assets like Chrome, Android or AdWords.

Barclays notes that such actions could wipe out as much as 41% of Alphabet’s gross profit. Behavioral remedies, such as implementing choice screens with limited or unlimited revenue shares, could also result in significant profit reductions, according to the company.

Barclays also points out that the recent lawsuit involving Epic Games and the Google Play Store could serve as a precursor to future changes to Google’s search partnership agreements.

Additionally, they say the court may require a fixed dollar share of revenue rather than a percentage, which could disrupt existing incentive structures between Google and its partners.

Despite the uncertainty, Barclays suggests some of the less favorable results may already be baked into Google’s stock.

However, it says worst-case scenarios will remain difficult to quantify, and the coming months will be critical in determining the long-term impact on Alphabet.

Overall, Barclays believes the potential consequences for Google are vast, and the final ruling could lead to profound changes in the tech giant’s operations and financial performance.