what US central bankers say By Reuters

(Reuters) – U.S. central bankers kept their target for short-term borrowing costs in the range of 5.25%-5.50% from last July when they ended their 2022-2023 rate hike campaign for to combat rising prices as global economies recover from the COVID-19 Pandemic Recession.

Inflation and the labor market have cooled considerably since then, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell says policymakers believe the time to cut the policy rate is nearing.

When and by how much is a subject of intense speculation. Fed policymakers say the decision will be driven by economic data. It will also undoubtedly be shaped by competing views among policymakers about how to interpret this data.

Here’s a look at the latest comments from Fed policymakers, sorting them under the “dove” and “hawk” labels as shorthand for their monetary policy leanings. A dove is more focused on labor market risks, while a hawk is more focused on the threat of inflation.

Designations are based on published comments and observations; for more, click on the photos in this graphic.

For a breakdown of how the Reuters numbers changed in each category, please scroll to the bottom of this story.

Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Adriana Jerome Powell, Fed Michelle

Kugler, chair, Bowman standing,

Governor, voter: “If we were governor,

permanent to see permanent inflation

voter: “I’m moving down… voter: “We need

more or less cautious in being patient

optimistic line with and avoid

that we are expectations, undermining

seeing continued growth

progress and quite strong, progress on

the type and decrease of the labor force

progress by which the market remains inflation

we must be consistent with the overreaction to

back to 2%” current conditions, any individual data

inflation. then I think a rate point.” Aug 10,

The July 16, 2024 cut could be in 2024

table at

September meeting.”

July 31, 2024

John Williams, the new Thomas Barkin,

York Fed President, Richmond Fed

Permanent President, 2024

voter: April to the voter: “Ai

The June data “seems to have some time

to bring us to a healthy state

closer to an economy of

the disinflationist figure

trend that we are if this is

search for. I an economy

i’d like to see it’s gentle

more data to get the pass in one

further normalization

trust.” Julie stated that she would

17, 2024 allow you to,

in a constant way

deliberately

rate normalization

or… is this

one where you

they really have

to lean into

it.” August 8,

2024

Philip Jefferson,

Vice President: “This is Jeffrey Schmid,

too early to tell Kansas City Fed

if recent president, 2025

slowness to voter: “If

disinflationary inflation

the process will continue

long lasting. Come down, my

better reading for confidence will

April is to grow new

encouraging.” May I’m about to

20, 2024 respect the price

the stability part

from our mandate,

and it will be

suitable for

adjust

attitude of

politics.” Aug 8

2024

Michael Barr, vice Lorie Logan,

President of the Dallas Fed

Oversight, President, 2026

permanent voter: voter: “We are

“We will have to need it

let us see more

restrictive policy several months of

more time that data to

to continue really has

work.” May 20, 2024 trust in

our perspective

that we are

heading towards 2%”.

June 18, 2024

Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari,

Governor, Permanent Minneapolis Fed

voter: “I think president, 2026

time to drop the voter: “We are

the policy rate is in a very good

approaching.” right position

July 17, 2024. now let’s get married

time, get more

inflation data,

get more data

on the economy,

on labor

the market, before

we have to do

any decision.”

June 16, 2024

Lisa Cook,

Governor, permanent

voter: “We are very

pay attention to what

happens with

unemployed

rate… The

the situation could

change very quickly

and we would be

receptive.” July

10, 2024

Mary Daly, San

Francisco Fed

President, 2024

voter: “Our minds

are quite open to

Adjusting

policy rate in

future meetings.”

August 5, 2024

Raphael

Bostic, Atlanta Fed

President, 2024

voter: “I’m open

something happens

as far as we are concerned

in motion

before the fourth

quarter

.” Aug

15, 2024

Alberto

Musalem, St. Louis

Fed Chairman, 2025

voter: “Now

balance appears

of risks on

inflation and

unemployment has

moved…

THE

the time may be approaching

When

an adjustment to

moderate

restrictive policy

may be

appropriate.” Aug

15, 2024

Austan Goolsbee,

Chicago Fed

President, 2025

voter: “We are

tight… if we are

too tight for too

long, let’s go

to have to come to

it catches with what

that will do

to the real part of

the economy.” August

8, 2024.

Susan Collins,

Boston Fed

President, 2025

voter: “If the data

keep going

which I expect, I do

think that

will be appropriate

soon to start

adjustment policy

and easing how

restrictive the

politics is.” August 9

2024

Patrick Harker,

Philadelphia Fed

President, 2026

voter: “If all

it happens to be like

predicted, I think

a reduction in the rate would

be appropriate by

the end of the year.” June

17, 2024

Notes: Fed policymakers began raising interest rates in March 2022 to curb high inflation. The most recent increase in the policy rate, to a range of 5.25%-5.5%, occurred in July 2023. In June 2024, seven policymakers were on average forecasting a rate cut this year; eight policymakers thought two rate cuts this year would be appropriate; and four thought none would be. The June meeting was the last for Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who retired at the end of June; Beth Hammack, her successor, starts on August 21 and will vote at the Fed’s September meeting. None are included in this pigeon matrix.

The seven Fed governors, including the Fed chairman and vice-chairmen, have standing votes at the Federal Open Market Committee meetings, which are held eight times a year. All 12 regional Fed presidents discuss and debate monetary policy at meetings, but only five cast votes, including the New York Fed president and four others who vote for a year at a time on a rotating schedule .

Over time, Reuters has changed the decision makers’ designations based on new comments and developing circumstances. Below is a Reuters tally of policymakers in each category heading into recent Fed meetings.

FOMC Data Dove Dovish Centrist Hawkish Hawk

Sept ’24 0 1 12 5 0

Apr/May; June; July ’24 0 1 10 6 1

March ’24 0 1 11 5 1

January ’24 0 2 9 4 1

Dec ’23 0 2 9 4 1

Oct/Nov ’23 0 2 7 5 2

Sept ’23 0 4 3 6 3

June ’23 0 3 3 8 3

March ’23 0 2 3 10 2

Dec ’22 0 4 1 12 2