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XAG/USD Holds Below $28.50 as Traders Cut Bets on Deeper Fed Rate Cuts

  • The price of silver falls to $28.15 in the first Asian session on Friday, down 0.70% on the day.
  • July US retail sales posted better-than-expected growth, up 1.0% month-on-month; Initial jobless claims fell to 227,000 last week.
  • Traders will watch the Fed’s Goolsbee speech and the first reading of August’s US Michigan consumer sentiment index for fresh impetus.

The price of silver (XAG/USD) fell to near $28.15 during Asian trading hours on Friday. Interest rate cut hopes by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September after recent upbeat US data weigh on the white metal.

Encouraging US economic data on Thursday eased fears of a potential recession in the United States and reduced speculation of an aggressive interest rate cut by the Fed in September. This in turn pulls the white metal down. It is worth noting that higher interest rates generally decrease precious metal demand and price.

The US Census Bureau revealed on Thursday that retail sales rose 1.0% in July, up from -0.2% previously, better than the 0.3% increase expected. In addition, the number of Americans filing new jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 227,000 for the week ended August 10, less than the market consensus of 235,000 and the previous reading of 234,000. This is the second week in a row that the number of initial jobless claims was lower than expected, suggesting that labor market conditions are not as weak as July’s non-farm payrolls (NFP) figures showed at the beginning of this month.

On Thursday, the president of the Fed in St. Louis, Alberto Musalem, said he believes the time is nearing when it will be appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates as inflation is on track to reach its 2 percent target. Traders will take more cues from Fed Austan Goolsbee’s speech on Friday for the US interest rate outlook. Any dovish remarks from the Fed official could provide some support for Silver. Also, Michigan’s preliminary US consumer sentiment index for August, building permits and housing starts will be released later in the day.

Frequently asked questions about silver

Silver is a highly traded precious metal among investors. It has historically been used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Although less popular than gold, traders can turn to silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during periods of high inflation. Investors can buy physical silver, in coins or bullion, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can cause the price of silver to escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than gold. As a non-yielding asset, silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its movements also depend on how the US dollar (USD) behaves, as the asset is valued in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong dollar tends to keep silver prices at bay, while a weaker dollar is likely to propel prices higher. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – silver is much more abundant than gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, especially in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, because it has one of the highest electrical conductivity of all metals – more than copper and gold. An increase in demand can raise prices, while a decrease tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies may also contribute to price fluctuations: for the US and especially China, their large industrial sectors use silver in various processes; in India, consumer demand for the precious metal for jewelry also plays a key role in pricing.

Silver prices tend to follow the movements of gold. When gold prices rise, silver usually follows suit, as their safe haven asset status is similar. The gold/silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of gold, can help determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may view a high ratio as an indicator that silver is undervalued or that gold is overvalued. Conversely, a low ratio could suggest that gold is undervalued relative to silver.

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