close
close
migores1

It rises to near 0.6030 on bullish market sentiment

  • NZD/USD climbs to near 0.6030 as market sentiment favors risk assets.
  • The RBNZ surprisingly announced a 25bps interest rate cut on Wednesday.
  • Firm prospects for Fed interest rate cuts limit US dollar gains.

NZD/USD climbs to near 0.6030 in the European session on Friday. The Kiwi asset is strengthening as the attractiveness of risk assets has improved. Market sentiment is improving significantly as fears of the United States (US) entering a recession eased due to upbeat retail sales in July and lower weekly jobless claims in the week ending August 9.

S&P 500 futures posted decent gains in European trading hours, showing an improvement in investors’ risk appetite. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, is down near 102.80.

However, the short-term appeal of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) remains uncertain as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the next move of the US dollar will be guided by market speculation for the path of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) for the full year. For this, investors are waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium (JH), which will be held on August 22-24.

NZD/USD is trading in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern on a daily time frame, which is showing a sharp contraction in volatility. The Kiwi asset is rising above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) near 0.6000, suggesting that the short-term trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in the 40.00-60.00 range, indicating indecision among market participants.

More upside would appear if the asset decisively breaks the May 3 high at 0.6046. This would push the asset higher to the July 17 high near 0.6100 and the July 12 high of 0.6127.

In an alternative scenario, a downside move below the April 19 low around 0.5850 would pull the asset towards support at the round level of 0.5800, followed by the October 26, 2023 low at 0.5770.

NZD/USD Daily Chart

New Zealand Dollar FAQ

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is largely determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the policy of the country’s central bank. However, there are some unique features that can make the NZD move as well. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move Kiwis as China is New Zealand’s largest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means fewer New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and therefore its currency. Another factor that moves the NZD is the price of dairy products, as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export earnings, contributing positively to the economy and thus the NZD.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate of between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus on keeping it close to the 2% midpoint. For this purpose, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will raise interest rates to cool the economy, but this move will also raise bond yields, increasing the attractiveness of investors to invest in the country and thus boosting the NZD. Conversely, lower interest rates tend to weaken the NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how New Zealand rates are or are expected to be compared to those set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

Macroeconomic data released in New Zealand is key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the valuation of the New Zealand dollar (NZD). A strong economy based on high growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for the NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise interest rates if this economic strength is coupled with increased inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, the NZD is likely to depreciate.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during periods of risk or when investors perceive broader market risks to be low and are bullish on growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called “commodity currencies” such as the kiwi. Conversely, the NZD tends to weaken during periods of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell riskier assets and flee to more stable havens.

Related Articles

Back to top button