Bitcoin comeback depends on these conditions, likely BTC bottom at $56,000

• US trading firm Jane Street increases overall position to $710 million in Spot Bitcoin ETFs per 13F filing with the SEC. 
• Nearly 75% of wallet addresses holding Bitcoin are currently profitable at $58,485, signaling intense selling pressure on BTC. 
• Ethereum and XRP held steady above key support on Friday. 

Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP updates

• Financial firm Jane Street filed Q3 13-F filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) shows that the giant increased its overall position in Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) from $613 million in Q1 to $710 million in Q2 2024. 
• Three factors influencing Bitcoin gains this cycle are:
  • Institutional capital inflow to Spot Bitcoin ETFs
  • Funding rate 
  • Bitcoin supply distribution 
• Bitcoin recorded over $11 million in inflows on Thursday, August 15, per data from Farside. Consistent institutional capital inflow could drive demand for Bitcoin. 

    Bitcoin ETF Flows from Farside 

• Bitcoin funding rate slipped to negative 7% on Thursday, lowest level in the last 365 days. Negative funding rate is indicative of short position holders paying longs, supporting a thesis of gains for Bitcoin. 
• Bitcoin holdings by long-term investors hit record levels per Glassnode data. Between July 18 and August 14, long term holders added 284,740 Bitcoin to their wallets. BTC long term holders increased from 13,538 million to 13.823 million. 

Bitcoin holdings of long-term holders 

• Ethereum and XRP rose slightly by 0.59% and 0.14% respectively. 

Chart of the day

FIL/USDT daily chart

Filecoin (FIL) trades at $3.474 at the time of writing. The token is likely to extend gains by over 15% and make a comeback above $4, a key support level for the token between November 2023 and July 2024. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator shows positive underlying momentum in FIL price trend.

FIL could find support at the August 5 low of $2.886, if the asset fails to extend gains. 

Market updates

• Ripple Chief Legal Officer said that less than 10% of appeals lead to reversals of ruling, assuaging the concerns of XRP holders. 
• Glassnode data shows Bitcoin’s negative correlation with SPX has deepened amid recent developments. 
• Binance Bitcoin funding rates dips to a 10-month low per CryptoQuant data.

Bitcoin funding rates

Industry updates

• South Korea’s NPS, the world’s third-largest public pension fund bought $34 million in MicroStrategy shares on August 16.
• Messari announced a testnet hackathon between September 29 and 30 in NewYork City. 

• Payments company Flexa Components to offer users a way to pay retailers using cryptocurrency stablecoins like USD Coin (USDC), through a mobile wallet app.